Operational Uncertainty Falls Hardest on Those Who Must Plan Most

# Operational Uncertainty Falls Hardest on Those Who Must Plan Most ## Claim When arrangements become unpredictable, the cost lands disproportionately on people whose participation already required advance planning, because they have the fewest options to adapt once the day arrives.  ## Scope & conditions - Holds for anything requiring logistical arrangement in advance — accessible transport, personal assistance, childcare, medication timing, booked paratransit. - The visible cost is cancellation, but the real cost is earlier: the decision is made days ahead, when uncertainty is highest and information is worst. - Negligible where participation is spontaneous and low-commitment, since adapting on the day is free. - This is a distributional claim, not a claim that uncertainty is avoidable. Some uncertainty is genuine; the point is that its burden is not shared evenly. - The mitigation is not certainty but early, specific communication — including saying clearly that something is not yet known. ## Evidence A ticketholder and her husband, both power wheelchair users, decided against attending an event after its start time moved by two and a half hours, the advertised support acts withdrew, and no refund policy had been announced: "With us both being in chairs trying to get into the city, we don't want to take that risk." She had been unable to obtain a refund from the resale platform. Other attendees in the same coverage described inconvenience rather than exclusion. ## Links - [[3. Resources/Permanent Notes/A Passing Automated Accessibility Score Is a Floor Not a Verdict]] — because extends; both concern access failures that technical compliance does not capture, here located in operations rather than in the artifact - [[3. Resources/MOCs/Accessibility & Disability Inclusion MOC]] — the access dimension of event and service operations, distinct from digital accessibility - [[3. Resources/MOCs/Commons & Community Governance MOC]] — applies directly to community event planning, where schedule changes are common and their distributional cost is rarely considered