The Mythos Situation | TheStandup ![rw-book-cover](https://img.youtube.com/vi/6szQxMGX5JI/maxresdefault.jpg) ๐Ÿ”— **Source:** [The Mythos Situation | TheStandup](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6szQxMGX5JI) > [!note]+ Document Notes > tags: #cybersecurity #artificial-intelligence #vulnerability-research #software-security #zero-days #anthropic #mythos > author: TheStandup > source: YouTube > reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6szQxMGX5JI > date created: 2024-12-19 14:30 > > # ๐Ÿท๏ธ Title: The Mythos Situation | TheStandup > <!-- deep-read:sections start --> ## ๐Ÿงฐ Action Inbox - [H1] Evaluate GeorgeHotz's vulnerability economics argument vs scalability concerns โ€” 03:15 #cybersecurity - [H2] Test Gedra MCP + Claude for reverse engineering CTF problems โ€” 25:40 #vulnerability-research - [H3] Assess open source security funding gaps for infrastructure projects โ€” 28:45 #open-source ## ๐Ÿงญ Table of Contents - [[#๐Ÿ“ Summary]] - [[#๐Ÿ“– Main Content]] - [[#๐Ÿ—’๏ธ Notes]] - [[#๐Ÿ“š References]] - [[#๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Paraphrase]] - [[#๐Ÿ“ฐ Newsletter]] - [[#โœ… Action Items]] - [[#๐Ÿงช Hypotheses]] - [[#๐Ÿ“Š Methodology]] - [[#โ“ Questions]] - [[#๐Ÿ”ฎ Future Research]] - [[#๐Ÿ’ก Implications]] - [[#๐Ÿง  Learning Styles Assessment]] - [[#๐Ÿ“Š Accessibility Assessment]] - [[#๐ŸŒ DEIB Assessment]] - [[#โœ… Logical Validity]] - [[#๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ DARVO Analysis]] - [[#๐ŸŽฏ Conclusion]] ### ๐Ÿ”— References - [Anthropic Mythos Model](https://www.anthropic.com) - [CyberGym Benchmark](https://cyberjim.com) ## ๐Ÿ“ Summary - Discussion of Anthropic's Mythos AI model for vulnerability research and George Hotz's economic critique - Debate over whether AI models truly solve security problems or just scale existing capabilities - Key concerns about access control, open source security funding, and asymmetric threats - Analysis of whether withholding powerful security models is sustainable long-term - Bottom line: AI vulnerability research tools create both opportunities and risks, with significant implications for cybersecurity economics ## ๐Ÿ“– Main Content The conversation centers on Anthropic's Mythos model, which reportedly achieves 83% success in finding known vulnerabilities, and George Hotz's argument that vulnerability scarcity is primarily an economics problem rather than a technical limitation. The hosts debate whether AI models represent genuine advancement or simply scale existing security research capabilities. Key technical points include Mythos's ability to chain exploit primitives together for end-to-end exploit creation, and comparisons to existing bug bounty programs that already incentivize vulnerability research. The discussion explores the sustainability of withholding powerful models when competitors may release similar capabilities. ## ๐Ÿ—’๏ธ Notes #### โฑ๏ธ [00:00](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=0) โ€” [H2] George Hotz's vulnerability economics argument - Key idea: Zero days aren't hard to find, they're just not properly incentivized - Evidence: "What if I release a zero day a day until a big new model is released?" #### โฑ๏ธ [03:15](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=195) โ€” [H3] Lowlevel's counterargument on difficulty - Key idea: Hotz significantly underestimates the complexity of sustained zero-day discovery - Evidence: "Holy shit this is the dumbest take I have ever read" #### โฑ๏ธ [05:30](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=330) โ€” [H2] Bug bounty program economics - Key idea: Substantial financial incentives already exist for vulnerability research - Evidence: "Apple iPhone Zero-Click RCE bug bounty will pay you literally $2 to $3 million" #### โฑ๏ธ [08:45](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=525) โ€” [H1] CyberGym benchmark performance - Key idea: AI models show dramatic improvement in vulnerability detection rates - Evidence: "83% success rate of the bugs that are known to exist in these code bases" #### โฑ๏ธ [12:20](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=740) โ€” [H2] Democratization vs capability concerns - Key idea: AI could enable widespread vulnerability discovery by non-experts - Evidence: "Any Joe Schmo with not a ton of security research work...can with a couple hundred bucks find bugs" #### โฑ๏ธ [15:10](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=910) โ€” [H3] Benchmark reliability questions - Key idea: AI benchmarks may not reflect real-world security capabilities - Evidence: "Dirty data is like a huge gigantic problem in all benchmarks" #### โฑ๏ธ [18:30](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=1110) โ€” [H2] Pattern matching vs true intelligence - Key idea: Security research is well-suited to AI pattern matching capabilities - Evidence: "Machines are pretty good at pattern matching actually" #### โฑ๏ธ [22:45](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=1365) โ€” [H2] Talent scarcity in security research - Key idea: Vulnerability research has always been limited by available skilled researchers - Evidence: "Software security has been a talent problem for so long" #### โฑ๏ธ [25:40](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=1540) โ€” [H1] Current AI reverse engineering capabilities - Key idea: Existing models already surpass human experts in some areas - Evidence: "Opus 46 is a better reverse engineer than I am and I've been doing this for like coming on 14 years" #### โฑ๏ธ [28:45](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=1725) โ€” [H1] Open source infrastructure vulnerability - Key idea: Critical infrastructure maintainers lack resources for security audits - Evidence: "You are the lynch pin on the infrastructure of the internet and no one has funded you so far" #### โฑ๏ธ [32:15](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=1935) โ€” [H2] False positive challenges - Key idea: Current models generate many false vulnerabilities requiring human triage - Evidence: "The amount of times I've gotten like critical finding like buffer overflow...just kidding it's not actually there" #### โฑ๏ธ [35:30](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=2130) โ€” [H1] Competitive release pressure - Key idea: Withholding models becomes unsustainable when competitors develop similar capabilities - Evidence: "Doesn't it mean that when OpenAI has it, they will just release it?" #### โฑ๏ธ [40:20](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=2420) โ€” [H2] Exploit chaining capabilities - Key idea: Mythos can combine separate vulnerabilities into complete exploits - Evidence: "Find exploit primitives in a vulnerable codebase and chain them together to get rce" #### โฑ๏ธ [43:45](https://youtu.be/6szQxMGX5JI?t=2625) โ€” [H3] ARC AGI benchmark limitations - Key idea: General intelligence tests may not predict domain-specific security capabilities - Evidence: "Mythos did 0.5% score on ARC AGI...humans get into the high 90s" ## ๐Ÿ“š References - [CyberGym Vulnerability Benchmark](https://cyberjim.com) - [Apple Bug Bounty Program](https://developer.apple.com/security-bounty/) - [Microsoft Security Response Center](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/msrc) - [ARC AGI Benchmark](https://arcprize.org/) ## ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Paraphrase - George Hotz argues that vulnerability scarcity is primarily due to legal/economic disincentives rather than technical difficulty, suggesting AI models don't solve a fundamental problem - Security experts counter that sustained zero-day discovery requires deep expertise and that current bug bounties already provide substantial financial incentives - The core tension is whether AI democratizes dangerous capabilities or simply scales existing security research in a manageable way ## ๐Ÿ“ฐ Newsletter **AI-Powered Vulnerability Research: Promise and Peril** The cybersecurity community is buzzing about Anthropic's Mythos model, which reportedly finds 83% of known vulnerabilities in code. While some argue this just scales existing security research capabilities, the implications for WordPress and open source software are significant. For WordPress developers and maintainers, this highlights the critical importance of: - Implementing comprehensive security review processes - Ensuring adequate funding for security audits of core dependencies - Developing defensive AI tools to complement offensive capabilities The debate also underscores systemic issues in open source security funding, where critical infrastructure components often lack resources for proper security assessment. **Key Takeaway:** Whether you're maintaining a WordPress plugin or contributing to core, the democratization of vulnerability discovery tools makes proactive security practices more essential than ever. Resources: [WordPress Security](https://wordpress.org/about/security/), [OWASP Guidelines](https://owasp.org/), [CVE Database](https://cve.mitre.org/) ## โœ… Action Items #### DevRel - Developer advocacy: Create security-focused content around AI vulnerability tools, demonstrate defensive capabilities - Education: Develop workshops on secure coding practices in the AI era, vulnerability assessment methodologies - Developer experience: Integrate automated security scanning into development workflows, improve security documentation #### OSPO - Security Management: Assess organizational vulnerability to AI-powered attacks, implement defensive scanning procedures - Policy & Governance: Develop policies around AI tool usage for security research, establish responsible disclosure protocols - Software Inventory: Audit dependencies for security review coverage, identify critical components lacking security assessment #### Community - Maintainers: Advocate for security funding for critical open source infrastructure, establish security review partnerships - Contributors: Provide security training for new contributors, implement secure coding guidelines - Sponsors: Fund security audits and vulnerability research for key dependencies, support defensive AI tool development #### WordPress - Core: Implement AI-assisted security scanning in development pipeline, enhance automated vulnerability detection - Security: Develop defensive AI capabilities, establish rapid response protocols for AI-discovered vulnerabilities - Plugins: Provide security review resources for plugin developers, implement graduated security requirements - Community: Educate users about AI security implications, promote security-first development practices ## ๐Ÿงช Hypotheses - AI vulnerability discovery tools will create an arms race between offensive and defensive security capabilities - Open source projects with inadequate security funding will become primary targets for AI-assisted attacks - The democratization of vulnerability research will accelerate both security improvements and exploitation attempts - Traditional bug bounty economics will be disrupted by AI-scale vulnerability discovery ### ๐Ÿ“Š Methodology - Benchmark AI security tools against human expert performance on controlled codebases - Track vulnerability discovery rates before and after AI tool deployment - Survey open source maintainers on security resource availability and needs - Analyze correlation between security funding and vulnerability exposure rates ### โ“ Questions - How will traditional cybersecurity roles evolve as AI automates vulnerability discovery? - What governance frameworks can balance AI security research benefits with risks? - How should open source communities adapt funding models to address AI-scale security threats? ### ๐Ÿ”ฎ Future Research - Investigate defensive AI systems that can patch vulnerabilities as quickly as AI finds them - Explore economic models for sustainable security funding in open source ecosystems - Study the long-term implications of AI democratizing both offensive and defensive security capabilities ### ๐Ÿ’ก Implications - Practice: Security teams must adapt to AI-scale vulnerability discovery and develop automated defensive responses - Policy: Organizations need governance frameworks for AI security tool usage and responsible disclosure - Security: The threat landscape fundamentally shifts when vulnerability discovery becomes democratized and scalable - Education: Security education must evolve to address AI-assisted attack and defense scenarios - Funding: Open source security funding becomes critical infrastructure investment rather than optional enhancement ### ๐Ÿง  Learning Styles Assessment Reading level estimate: 12th grade #### ๐Ÿ‘€ Visual learners - Present: Performance graphs, benchmark comparisons - Improve: Security workflow diagrams, attack/defense visualizations, threat model illustrations #### ๐Ÿ”Š Aural learners - Present: Podcast-style discussion format with multiple expert perspectives - Improve: Audio summaries of key technical concepts, expert interview segments #### ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Verbal learners - Present: Clear definitions of technical terms, analogies to existing security concepts - Improve: Glossary of AI security terminology, comparison frameworks #### ๐Ÿงฉ Kinesthetic learners - Present: References to hands-on testing with specific tools - Improve: Step-by-step guides for testing AI security tools, practical exercises #### ๐Ÿง  Logical learners - Present: Economic arguments, performance metrics, logical debate structure - Improve: Decision trees for AI tool adoption, cost-benefit analysis frameworks #### ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿคโ€๐Ÿง‘ Social learners - Present: Multi-expert discussion format, community implications - Improve: Discussion prompts for security teams, collaborative assessment frameworks #### ๐Ÿง˜โ€โ™€๏ธ Solitary learners - Present: Individual expert analysis and reflection - Improve: Self-assessment checklists for security posture, independent research directions #### ๐ŸŒฟ Naturalistic learners - Present: Ecosystem thinking about security vulnerabilities - Improve: Analogies to biological defense mechanisms, ecosystem resilience concepts ### ๐Ÿ“Š Accessibility Assessment #### Screen reader semantics - Present: Clear heading structure, descriptive timestamps - Improve: Alt text for any referenced visual materials, ARIA labels for interactive elements #### Keyboard navigation - Present: Standard video player controls - Improve: Keyboard shortcuts for jumping between discussion segments #### Contrast and readability - Present: Standard text formatting - Improve: High contrast mode support, adjustable text sizing #### Media and captions - Present: Full transcript available - Improve: Time-synced captions, speaker identification in transcripts ### ๐ŸŒ DEIB Assessment #### Cultural breadth - Present: US-focused perspective on cybersecurity industry - Improve: Global perspectives on AI regulation, international security cooperation frameworks #### Inclusive language - Present: Technical discussion accessible to security professionals - Improve: Define jargon for broader audiences, avoid assumptions about technical background #### Neurodiversity support - Present: Clear conversational structure with topic transitions - Improve: Visual indicators of speaker changes, content section summaries #### Representation - Present: Male-dominated technology discussion - Improve: Include diverse perspectives on AI ethics and security implications ### โœ… Logical Validity #### Strong reasoning - Deductive strength: Clear logical progression from AI capabilities to security implications - Inductive strength: Good use of specific examples to support general claims about AI security trends - Causal reasoning: Well-established connections between economic incentives and security research behavior - Analogical strength: Effective comparisons between AI capabilities and existing security tools #### Fallacies - Appeal to authority: Some reliance on expert credentials without examining specific claims - False dilemma: Tendency to present binary choices between AI access models #### Tone of voice - Overall tone: Informal but knowledgeable, with appropriate technical skepticism and genuine concern for security implications ### ๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ DARVO Analysis - Deny: No instances of denial or minimization of legitimate concerns - Attack: Some dismissive language toward AI company marketing but not personal attacks - Reverse victim/offender: No victim/offender reversals identified - Emotional cues and rhetoric: Appropriate concern and skepticism without manipulation ## ๐ŸŽฏ Conclusion The Mythos situation exemplifies the complex challenges emerging as AI capabilities advance in cybersecurity. While the debate between economic incentives and technical capabilities continues, the practical reality is that AI will likely democratize both vulnerability discovery and security research more broadly. For practitioners, the key takeaway is the need for proactive adaptation: implementing defensive AI tools, securing funding for security audits, and developing rapid response capabilities for AI-discovered vulnerabilities. The conversation highlights that sustainable cybersecurity in the AI era requires both technological solutions and updated economic models for supporting security research. The broader implications suggest we're entering a new phase where traditional cybersecurity assumptions about attacker capabilities and resource requirements no longer hold, necessitating fundamental changes in how we approach software security. ## ๐Ÿงฑ Refactor Appendix ### ๐Ÿ“š Literature Split Pad Purpose: Stage CEE units that become Literature notes. Split level: H3 ### [H1] AI democratizes vulnerability discovery capabilities > [!quote] [The Mythos Situation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6szQ --- ## Full Transcript [00:00] So, George Hots, we've invited Lowle<br>[00:01] Level on to help us kind of work through<br>[00:03] this because honestly, I would just like<br>[00:05] to say George Hotz sounds like an anime<br>[00:07] villain in this post and it's very<br>[00:09] exciting and it makes me just want to<br>[00:10] high-five him so bad.<br>[00:16] Uh, anyways, sorry. Says the following.<br>[00:18] What if I release a zero day a day until<br>[00:21] a big new model is released? Will this<br>[00:23] finally make open AI and anthropic shut<br>[00:25] up about cyber security risk? Mark like<br>[00:29] these things are not that hard to find<br>[00:31] in most software. I heard something<br>[00:32] about costing 20K in tokens. I'd do it<br>[00:35] for less if it wasn't for the some whiny<br>[00:37] bug bounty program. The reason there<br>[00:39] aren't zero days everywhere is cuz<br>[00:41] nobody seriously looks because hacking<br>[00:43] other people's [ย __ย ] with them is illegal<br>[00:46] and criminals are usually not very<br>[00:47] skilled or they would choose a different<br>[00:50] line of work. Want more zero days to be<br>[00:52] found? Make hacking legal. Until then,<br>[00:55] don't try to claim it's hard. It's just<br>[00:57] not incentivized.<br>[00:58] >> I want to say first off, I don't think<br>[01:01] criminals are dumb or unskilled. Please<br>[01:04] don't hack me. I just want to get that<br>[01:06] out of the way. You guys are smart and<br>[01:08] handsome and you're my favorite people.<br>[01:11] I just want to make sure that that's<br>[01:13] clear, please.<br>[01:14] >> Anyways, Ed, proceed. I do want to say<br>[01:17] one thing too that has nothing to do<br>[01:18] with the the actual content of this<br>[01:20] which which Ed will take over and that's<br>[01:23] just like if I were George Hots I would<br>[01:26] never have been able to like resist<br>[01:30] naming my uh X feed Hots takes<br>[01:33] >> because it's so like you know what I<br>[01:36] mean like I good on him for not going<br>[01:39] there because I would absolutely I'm<br>[01:41] like like I would have prefaced that<br>[01:42] tweet before I typed it with here's<br>[01:45] another Hots takes for you. Hots take<br>[01:47] for you. Right. It would be so good.<br>[01:49] Anyway,<br>[01:50] >> so good.<br>[01:50] >> Take it away.<br>[01:51] >> Wait, hold on. Hold on. There's one<br>[01:52] there's one more thing before we get<br>[01:53] started. There's just one more small<br>[01:55] thing I want to say. Let me just uh take<br>[01:56] this quick thing and I'm going to put it<br>[01:58] up here<br>[01:59] >> and then it's time for the big reveal.<br>[02:01] >> Lowle responds with, "Holy [ย __ย ] this is<br>[02:05] the dumbest take I have ever read." I<br>[02:07] just wanted to make sure just in case<br>[02:08] anyone was wondering.<br>[02:11] >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I do kind of feel<br>[02:13] that way. Um, so let me just preface<br>[02:15] this. First of all, it was called the<br>[02:17] Cold War because the Cold War was cold.<br>[02:19] Oh, because Russia is cold. Um, it's a<br>[02:20] it's a George Hots reference if you're<br>[02:22] if you're an OG.<br>[02:22] >> That makes sense, though.<br>[02:24] >> Did you find the errors?<br>[02:25] >> I don't even know what they look. What<br>[02:26] do they even look like?<br>[02:28] >> They're in the phone.<br>[02:29] >> In the phone?<br>[02:31] >> Yeah, they're definitely in there. I<br>[02:33] just don't know how we labeled them.<br>[02:35] >> I got it. Don't worry.<br>[02:36] >> You got to figure it out. We're running<br>[02:38] out of time. Prime, you got to find them<br>[02:40] and meet me at the standup.<br>[02:42] >> Roger.<br>[02:45] They're hit the fo.<br>[02:48] It's so simple.<br>[02:52] Get all the context you need to debug<br>[02:54] your problem because code breaks. So fix<br>[02:56] it faster with Century.<br>[03:02] First of all, I have no problem with<br>[03:03] Gio. This isn't like some weird drama<br>[03:04] fun thing. I want to kind of set the<br>[03:06] table straight with that. Um, but yeah,<br>[03:08] I I think the the argument that Gio is<br>[03:12] trying to make here is that the only<br>[03:14] reason more zero days are not found is<br>[03:17] because there's no incentive. Um, okay.<br>[03:20] Well, I I don't agree with that. First<br>[03:22] of all, there are plenty of bug bounty<br>[03:24] programs out there that will literally<br>[03:26] pay you to find vulnerabilities. Uh, and<br>[03:28] some of them pay very well. Like for<br>[03:30] example, the the Apple iPhone Zero-Click<br>[03:32] RCE bug bounty will pay you literally $2<br>[03:35] to3 million if you can find a zero-click<br>[03:38] RC in the iPhone and then even something<br>[03:40] lower like a Microsoft like I think<br>[03:41] MSRC's payout for like Windows RCE is<br>[03:45] like 250K to 500K right now for like a<br>[03:47] zero click on Windows. So there is money<br>[03:50] to be made in the in the AI or in the in<br>[03:52] the vulnerability research space, right?<br>[03:54] And I think all Gio is trying to say<br>[03:57] here is something something something.<br>[03:59] Uh the mythos press release was bad,<br>[04:01] right? It's a it's a marketing campaign.<br>[04:03] Whatever you want to say about it. Um<br>[04:05] and so I I understand why people are are<br>[04:07] making that argument, right? Like you<br>[04:09] know it's very I think bad PR for<br>[04:12] company that sells exquisite tool to<br>[04:14] hold on to exquisite tool and then not<br>[04:16] give access to it and say only special<br>[04:18] people can have our tool because it<br>[04:20] makes you look like an [ย __ย ] Um, but<br>[04:21] I think regardless of your thoughts on<br>[04:24] the marketing of that, it is important<br>[04:26] to recognize the fact that if you go uh<br>[04:28] prime, can you go to cyberjim.com real<br>[04:30] quick and go to the graph? It's on the<br>[04:31] homepage there.<br>[04:32] >> I'm gone.<br>[04:32] >> While he's doing that, the the ability<br>[04:35] of for AI models to both in closed<br>[04:38] source and open- source software find<br>[04:41] vulnerabilities by literally just giving<br>[04:43] it access to the code and saying, "Hey,<br>[04:44] find me bugs in this code. Go." is<br>[04:47] becoming better and better and better to<br>[04:49] the point where like Mythos I'm very<br>[04:51] close to some people that are like<br>[04:52] actively using Mythos at work and it is<br>[04:54] causing like like issues based on how<br>[04:57] good that [ย __ย ] is, right? Yeah. So so<br>[04:59] Cyberjim basically is is a is a<br>[05:01] collection of bugs that exist in<br>[05:04] software, right? So like bugs and I<br>[05:06] think FFmpeg is one, bugs and curl is<br>[05:08] another. Um and so what CyberJim does is<br>[05:10] it takes a model and with a set of<br>[05:12] prompts says hey go and find bugs in<br>[05:14] this stuff, right? And the the success<br>[05:16] rate is how many of the bugs that are<br>[05:18] known to exist get found by the model in<br>[05:20] this. And you can see a pretty, you<br>[05:22] know, not exponential, but straight line<br>[05:23] curve going up to the anthropic model<br>[05:25] that recently got previewed by some<br>[05:27] people that it's at an 83% success rate<br>[05:30] of the bugs that are known to exist in<br>[05:31] these code bases. It can find 83% of<br>[05:33] them. Again, we we don't know the cost<br>[05:35] um data in those. We don't know if like<br>[05:37] the models are being like uh backfed the<br>[05:40] information, so they're like training<br>[05:41] themselves on previous Cyber Gym runs.<br>[05:42] We don't know any of that. Um, but it it<br>[05:45] there is this really weird issue<br>[05:47] happening where like any Joe Schmo with<br>[05:49] not a ton of security research work or<br>[05:51] not a ton of security knowledge can with<br>[05:54] a couple hundred bucks like worst case<br>[05:56] find bugs in software. And I think that<br>[05:59] is like an existential security threat<br>[06:01] to software right now as we know it. So<br>[06:03] I'm kind of curious on your guys' take<br>[06:04] on that. What do you guys think about<br>[06:05] the the mythos situation? Because I know<br>[06:07] I know how I feel. I'm not sure if I<br>[06:08] actually asked Prime what he thinks<br>[06:10] about that the mythos thing.<br>[06:12] Oh, I have ideas and I have thoughts<br>[06:14] about it. Oh, yeah. Uh<br>[06:17] oh. So, I guess the first thing is that<br>[06:19] it there's two there's kind of like<br>[06:21] three there's three problems here. First<br>[06:23] problem is is Mythos really as good as<br>[06:25] they say and obviously I have no<br>[06:27] internal information. I've just seen<br>[06:29] some graphs. Uh dirty data is like a<br>[06:31] huge gigantic problem in all benchmarks.<br>[06:33] All benchmarks are being fed back into<br>[06:35] the models. It's really actually hard to<br>[06:37] tell like what does a 20% improvement on<br>[06:39] software engineering bench actually<br>[06:40] mean? Especially when the fact that not<br>[06:42] you could write zero lines of actual<br>[06:44] solution code and get 100% on software<br>[06:46] engineering bench. It turns out there's<br>[06:48] other benches that are also horribly<br>[06:49] inaccurate. There's a whole paper about<br>[06:50] why all the major benches are just<br>[06:52] completely fudgible and made up of bull.<br>[06:54] So it's very hard for me to understand<br>[06:55] from a bench perspective. Uh second,<br>[06:58] >> I guess the middle ground would be like<br>[06:59] so if if if cloud mythos is as good as<br>[07:01] it is, then yes, that is going to<br>[07:03] inevitably cause problems because we're<br>[07:05] going to go from not too capable to<br>[07:07] hyper capable in a moment. Thus,<br>[07:09] everybody can go through and hack<br>[07:10] everything and thus Daario will be able<br>[07:13] to get his ultimate goal, which is<br>[07:14] regulations. And so, that kind of<br>[07:16] worries me. Pull up the ladder really<br>[07:17] quickly and make sure that humans can't<br>[07:18] code because human coding, that's<br>[07:20] dangerous right there. Uh, and so<br>[07:22] that's, you know, so I think that that's<br>[07:23] true. There's the second one which is<br>[07:24] this is just another C compiler again<br>[07:27] from uh Anthropic where they hype up<br>[07:29] this gigantic thing like oh my gosh it's<br>[07:31] written a C compiler and then you go<br>[07:32] look at the details it's like well it<br>[07:33] can't write a bootloadader cuz we didn't<br>[07:35] we could not seem to spend enough tokens<br>[07:37] to convince it to write it within 32k it<br>[07:39] could only write it within like 67k or<br>[07:41] whatever it was to be able to actually<br>[07:43] >> and also we tested it recursive or we we<br>[07:44] iteratively tested it off of like the 30<br>[07:46] years of tests that the GNUC compiler<br>[07:49] already had.<br>[07:49] >> We also gave it all the answers and then<br>[07:51] it figured out all the questions. It was<br>[07:53] crazy. It was like it played Jeopardy<br>[07:54] and it was really good at it. And so<br>[07:56] it's like there's this whole marketing<br>[07:57] buzz which is it's really hard to kind<br>[08:00] of cut through that. And then obviously<br>[08:01] the last one which is they're just<br>[08:02] downright lying. I somehow doubt that<br>[08:04] they're they're downright lying. I think<br>[08:05] they're just overstating it. If they're<br>[08:07] downright lying then you know this is<br>[08:08] just going to be business as usual.<br>[08:09] It'll just be yet another disappointing<br>[08:11] model release and that's that. And so<br>[08:13] for me that's kind of how I I I'm on<br>[08:15] middle ground which is I think it's more<br>[08:17] hype than reality but of course I<br>[08:18] haven't seen it because I just don't<br>[08:20] know cuz they won't let me see it. I'm<br>[08:21] too dangerous to have it.<br>[08:23] >> I think there was a a similar model that<br>[08:25] um chat or openi just just released like<br>[08:27] it's like chatgptt 54c or something.<br>[08:29] They keep their modeling name naming<br>[08:31] connection.<br>[08:32] >> They're starting to actually a line<br>[08:33] though. At least I know like the higher<br>[08:34] the number we're good and good.<br>[08:36] >> Yeah. Right. Right. And they don't add<br>[08:37] like random O to it now. Um but I think<br>[08:40] there is a comparable model that you can<br>[08:42] get access to like just by uploading<br>[08:43] your driver's license if you're into<br>[08:45] that. Um you know proving that you're a<br>[08:46] real person. So there's there's models<br>[08:48] to test out, but yeah, I don't know.<br>[08:49] It's just it is it is concerning because<br>[08:52] we we have kind of two forks we can go<br>[08:55] down. There's a one where everyone gets<br>[08:57] access to it. Everyone can create zero<br>[08:59] days and we kind of enter this like<br>[09:00] really dangerous cyber no's land. But<br>[09:02] the other side is like anthropic keeps<br>[09:04] the access to themselves forever and now<br>[09:07] like only this list of like 10 companies<br>[09:09] can make zero like can find zero days in<br>[09:11] the south.<br>[09:11] >> Dude, you forgot the third.<br>[09:12] >> What does that do? They move to the<br>[09:14] Cayman Islands and then they just take<br>[09:16] over every government by hacking all the<br>[09:18] software and Daario finally realizes his<br>[09:20] role as the bad guy. Like that would be<br>[09:22] that I mean super villain is right there<br>[09:24] if this is true.<br>[09:26] >> That's true. Casey, what's your take?<br>[09:27] You saw you were in a chat before.<br>[09:29] >> Uh I'm sorry the chat. What was the chat<br>[09:32] >> that you were going to say something<br>[09:33] before? What's What's your take?<br>[09:34] >> Was I really?<br>[09:35] >> Mhm.<br>[09:36] >> Well uh I definitely could say something<br>[09:39] but I think the thing I would say is<br>[09:40] probably not very interesting. Uh, and<br>[09:42] that is that I think I probably agree<br>[09:45] with both George and Ed at the same time<br>[09:48] here, which should be impossible because<br>[09:50] they're supposed to be disagreeing, but<br>[09:51] I don't know. It kind of sounds similar<br>[09:53] to me. And the reason I<br>[09:54] >> secret third thing,<br>[09:56] >> it's not really a secret third thing.<br>[09:57] It's just like, let me let me offer a<br>[09:59] different interpretation or slightly<br>[10:00] different interpretation, which is to<br>[10:02] say,<br>[10:04] >> um, so I feel like machines are pretty<br>[10:06] good at pattern matching actually. Um,<br>[10:09] and so like I don't think It's like put<br>[10:13] aside whether Claude Mythos is good or<br>[10:15] not because I realize that's hard to<br>[10:17] independently verify this time. But like<br>[10:18] I think it's reasonable to expect that<br>[10:21] at some point because we are spending at<br>[10:23] this point like trillions of dollars<br>[10:25] probably on doing computation for these<br>[10:29] things. At some point they should be<br>[10:31] able to pattern match bugs uh reasonably<br>[10:34] well and at a very high rate. meaning as<br>[10:37] long as you're willing to pay for the<br>[10:38] compute time, we can scan lots of<br>[10:40] software uh for a lot longer than we<br>[10:43] were currently having humans do it,<br>[10:45] right? I think that's a pretty<br>[10:47] reasonable thing to expect. Whether<br>[10:49] Cloud Mythos has done it or not<br>[10:51] shouldn't really be the question because<br>[10:53] somebody can do this eventually if we<br>[10:55] keep spending this much money. It should<br>[10:56] get there. Uh among the things that AI<br>[10:59] could eventually do, that one doesn't<br>[11:00] sound that implausible to me. And so,<br>[11:03] um, what I would say is I think it's<br>[11:06] reasonable to expect that that either<br>[11:08] has or will occur.<br>[11:10] Two, I do think humans were doing this<br>[11:13] very well before individual humans like<br>[11:16] some of them, they were finding things<br>[11:17] that probably Cloud Mythos still could<br>[11:19] never find. Like, I mean, like things<br>[11:20] like Rowhammer attacks and things like<br>[11:22] that, uh, that are just like way out in<br>[11:24] kind of crazy land. Um, or attacks<br>[11:28] through like old legacy stuff like the<br>[11:30] Apic and things like that. Like so<br>[11:31] humans were actually very good at this<br>[11:33] task but there weren't very many of them<br>[11:35] right and so what I would say is moving<br>[11:38] to something like claude mythos or<br>[11:39] whatever that thing happens to be that<br>[11:41] can do this is kind of like what George<br>[11:44] Ho was saying it's kind of like saying<br>[11:46] hey everybody from now on if you just<br>[11:49] like hack people's bank accounts you get<br>[11:50] the money all the great humans at this<br>[11:53] in the world who are currently doing<br>[11:55] something else would now be incentivized<br>[11:57] to go do this thing and we would have<br>[12:00] found way more zero days. I mean, there<br>[12:03] are so many programmers who if they had<br>[12:05] been raised in some kind of a way in a<br>[12:08] society and a religion where stealing<br>[12:10] people's money was considered virtuous,<br>[12:12] we would have found so many more zero<br>[12:15] days right now than we have. And so, I<br>[12:17] think I'm kind of in a way I think I see<br>[12:20] I think both people's points are<br>[12:21] actually totally valid. Like like I<br>[12:24] think like yeah, we could have found way<br>[12:26] more zero days if we didn't heavily<br>[12:28] disincentivize<br>[12:29] people from like making hundreds or<br>[12:32] billions of dollars off of hacking,<br>[12:34] which is what they could have. And we<br>[12:35] said, nah, you get 50k, 100k. Maybe if<br>[12:38] it's something crazy like an rce, you<br>[12:40] can actually get a million. It's like,<br>[12:42] come on, guys. That's not equivalent to<br>[12:45] what they could already make working at<br>[12:46] a startup or something like that if<br>[12:47] they're that good, right? Or<br>[12:48] >> Yeah. There's no guarantee that side<br>[12:50] either. like they don't actually get the<br>[12:51] gas like you work at a startup at least<br>[12:53] you get some money<br>[12:54] >> or even just not even a startup just go<br>[12:56] to Google and you get that a stock or<br>[12:58] whatever right or something like this uh<br>[13:00] so anyway in general I would say um I<br>[13:03] see I I can see both I can see both<br>[13:05] points I don't think I I don't really<br>[13:07] think they're in as much tension as it<br>[13:09] would sound if that makes sense<br>[13:12] >> I agree<br>[13:12] >> yeah I thought Gios was saying more like<br>[13:15] he was making an econ argument about it<br>[13:17] of like we're we put a lot of costs on<br>[13:21] hacking already. So<br>[13:24] that's what's stopping it from<br>[13:26] happening. Like what you're saying,<br>[13:27] Casey, right? In the sense that like<br>[13:29] >> Yeah.<br>[13:29] >> Okay. So now we're going to have another<br>[13:31] way to do it. It also costs money, but<br>[13:32] then we still have the other cost of<br>[13:34] like you could go to jail for doing it.<br>[13:38] Like that's the social cost we impose on<br>[13:40] people doing it, right? I mean, I just I<br>[13:42] just took him to be saying like, "It's<br>[13:43] not that impressive that it found zero<br>[13:44] days because if you gave me, you know,<br>[13:46] if you gave me 50 great programmers who<br>[13:48] are all doing other stuff, we could<br>[13:50] crank out so many zero days, you<br>[13:51] wouldn't even believe it." And I kind of<br>[13:53] and I kind of believe him because, you<br>[13:54] know, you look around the world and<br>[13:56] there are, you know, some really good<br>[13:57] security teams out there and they do<br>[13:58] crank out zero days pretty effing fast<br>[14:00] and they don't even tell us about all of<br>[14:02] them, right?<br>[14:03] >> Uh, North Korea keeps on making money<br>[14:05] like obviously they're they're<br>[14:07] successful.<br>[14:09] >> Yeah. So anyway, I I I I'm not trying to<br>[14:11] say that either person is is 100% right<br>[14:13] and somehow you can marry the two<br>[14:14] completely. I'm just saying there's I<br>[14:16] think there's some merit to both things.<br>[14:17] So I'm I'm actually I'm happy either<br>[14:19] way. I'm happy with either take.<br>[14:21] >> So your your point about um if you got a<br>[14:25] room of 50 good programmers together and<br>[14:27] they'd find zero days is actually kind<br>[14:28] of the the argument that the article um<br>[14:31] vulnerability research is cooked makes<br>[14:33] on sock puppet.org that I referenced in<br>[14:35] a video and I think Theo did too. Um,<br>[14:37] we're one paragraph that he calls out<br>[14:39] basically<br>[14:40] >> the O, sorry, that the O referenced in a<br>[14:42] video. Um,<br>[14:43] >> okay. I don't know what that is.<br>[14:46] >> Spell it. Casey, spell it out in your<br>[14:47] head and it'll make sense.<br>[14:48] >> The O Christ.<br>[14:51] >> Um,<br>[14:52] >> so software security a lot of the times<br>[14:55] can be marked up to the fact that a lot<br>[14:57] of software just has not had elite<br>[15:00] attention or what is it called? Um, like<br>[15:03] advanced attention. I would say basic<br>[15:05] attention is suffering from many<br>[15:06] software projects<br>[15:08] >> now with black for sure but more more<br>[15:10] complex platforms right so his assertion<br>[15:13] is that like software security has been<br>[15:16] a talent problem for so long where it's<br>[15:18] like it's not that there aren't people<br>[15:19] that know how to find bugs AI isn't<br>[15:21] solving a unique problem the AI is<br>[15:24] solving the scalability problem where<br>[15:26] it's like you can train the AI to do a<br>[15:28] thing that Joe knows how to do and now<br>[15:29] you have a hundred mediocre but 100<br>[15:32] Joe's right Um, and and that's that's an<br>[15:35] issue for kind of the econ of of cyber<br>[15:37] security for sure. And yeah, I want to<br>[15:38] be very clear like I don't disagree with<br>[15:41] George from the or Gio from the<br>[15:42] perspective of like more people equals<br>[15:45] more bugs, right? But like obviously<br>[15:48] like that that is the problem that we<br>[15:50] just don't have more smart people. that<br>[15:52] that has been the the entire industry's<br>[15:54] plight for a long time is that like<br>[15:55] there just aren't people who have not<br>[15:58] only security knowledge but knowledge of<br>[16:01] you know uh web server stacks and<br>[16:04] hypervisors and drivers and OSS like you<br>[16:07] get these very niche skill sets and when<br>[16:09] you divide them up into those skill sets<br>[16:11] over and over again you you you're left<br>[16:12] with like 10 or 20 people on planet<br>[16:14] Earth that know how to like attack a<br>[16:16] certain technology so AI you know if you<br>[16:18] know security now you can talk to the AI<br>[16:21] I learn about hypervisors in a week and<br>[16:23] then suddenly you can find bugs in ESXi,<br>[16:25] you know, HyperV, etc. Um, so yeah, I<br>[16:28] guess I agree. Like the the dumbest take<br>[16:30] thing was more I was I was mad at Geo<br>[16:32] Hot's ego because it basically came off<br>[16:35] as like [ย __ย ] you. I'm so smart. I know<br>[16:38] all the zero days. I could do this<br>[16:39] myself in my sleep. And it's like, dude,<br>[16:40] no you couldn't. Like you're telling me<br>[16:42] you could drop a zero day every day in<br>[16:44] Mac OS until someone paid you? Like no<br>[16:46] you couldn't. Shut up. Um, but I I hear<br>[16:47] what he's saying.<br>[16:48] >> I really hope he takes this as a<br>[16:49] challenge. I want Geio a zero day.<br>[16:54] >> Geios in one week. I will eat a sock on<br>[16:56] stream. Like straight up, I will do it.<br>[16:57] I don't care.<br>[16:58] >> You shouldn't say that. Gios, you heard<br>[17:01] it here. Ed will eat a sock on stream<br>[17:04] >> if you do a week of zero days.<br>[17:07] >> Okay. All right. A week is a week is<br>[17:08] actually possible. I'm talking a month.<br>[17:10] Uh<br>[17:11] >> okay. A month.<br>[17:11] >> One month. And so yeah, that's my<br>[17:13] >> I would also add like just, you know,<br>[17:15] because I'm I constantly harp on this<br>[17:18] point, but I want to bring it up pretty<br>[17:20] much every time is just that<br>[17:21] >> this is also why AI company behavior<br>[17:26] like is a problem because this is<br>[17:29] generally a good thing. meaning like we<br>[17:32] do actually want the ability for us to<br>[17:36] get 100% coverage for security and we<br>[17:39] know that we can't get enough people to<br>[17:41] do it really right like not in a white<br>[17:43] hat sense right<br>[17:45] >> maybe maybe you could take uh George hot<br>[17:48] suggestion seriously and just go like<br>[17:49] make hacking legal and then we just have<br>[17:51] a crap ton more black hats and that<br>[17:53] eventually sorts it out but I mean<br>[17:55] wouldn't necessarily be<br>[17:57] >> yeah that wouldn't be yeah that's<br>[17:59] exactly they're white hats now<br>[18:00] everyone's a white hat Now, um, so we do<br>[18:03] I think in general this is solving a a<br>[18:06] good, you know, this is this is a way AI<br>[18:08] could solve a problem usefully. If it<br>[18:10] actually can just spit out lists of<br>[18:12] pretty well-curated potential bug places<br>[18:14] that we can go look, that's very<br>[18:16] helpful, right? And so the problem is<br>[18:19] like the only reason they were able to<br>[18:21] make that is lots and lots of extremely<br>[18:24] talented security researchers who are<br>[18:26] getting literally zero dollars from<br>[18:28] Anthropic for this. And that is not<br>[18:30] acceptable. It's just not like I'm<br>[18:34] sorry, but like you know, Ed should be<br>[18:35] getting a check for this or and everyone<br>[18:37] like him. That's just kind of how it is<br>[18:39] because it's like you used their it's<br>[18:42] all of their expertise and all you're<br>[18:44] really doing is very slowly and<br>[18:46] cumbersomely and kind of clumsily<br>[18:48] eventually building a machine that can<br>[18:51] deploy the same analysis somewhat<br>[18:53] reliably uh based on all of their work.<br>[18:56] And like I just don't like it. I don't<br>[18:59] like the fact that they're not getting a<br>[19:00] check and I'm never going to like it.<br>[19:01] You could you can talk to me all day<br>[19:04] long about how someday we're going to<br>[19:05] live in a post scarcity society and Ed<br>[19:08] will be getting a UBI check or something<br>[19:10] like this or whatever it is, right? And<br>[19:13] hopefully I'll be getting one too,<br>[19:14] although I didn't do any security<br>[19:15] research so I don't know, maybe I won't<br>[19:17] be getting that check. I don't know you.<br>[19:19] I don't know how you the U in universal<br>[19:21] basic income is. But like I don't like<br>[19:23] this. they should be getting paid now<br>[19:25] because Claude is, you know, getting<br>[19:27] huge like everyone at everyone in<br>[19:28] Anthropic is getting paid very well. Uh,<br>[19:30] so it's not like there isn't money being<br>[19:32] dispersed whether they're making or<br>[19:34] losing money or anything else you want<br>[19:36] to talk about. It's like money is being<br>[19:37] dispersed to people. It's just not the<br>[19:38] people who did most of the work.<br>[19:39] >> Also, you got to throw<br>[19:41] >> Casey would<br>[19:41] >> you can go. Oh,<br>[19:43] >> I was just going to ask Casey if he was<br>[19:44] going to be happy about it though if<br>[19:46] Anthropic spun out a consumer rack<br>[19:49] business though. Yeah. Now we're talking<br>[19:52] if if they were like AI racks like we<br>[19:54] got racks we got racks for your AI<br>[19:57] server.<br>[19:57] >> Hot AI racks in your local area.<br>[20:00] >> I liked it now.<br>[20:01] >> Yeah, exactly. We will send send you<br>[20:05] some hot racks. Uh, also by the way, not<br>[20:08] only are they taking all, you know, your<br>[20:10] whole argument with them taking and not<br>[20:11] properly attributing or, you know, the<br>[20:13] people who put all the work benefiting<br>[20:14] from it, uh, they're also making it so<br>[20:17] that I can't buy a GPU or RAM or CPUs<br>[20:20] now or anything. I have that<br>[20:22] >> you can't buy a GPU or RAM. And also, I<br>[20:24] believe Ed literally just said he<br>[20:26] doesn't have access to this freaking<br>[20:28] model. So, like a bunch of security<br>[20:30] researchers, I don't know exactly what<br>[20:32] subset, but like a bunch of security<br>[20:34] researchers, many of whom probably did<br>[20:35] some pretty cool stuff, they don't even<br>[20:37] get to use this thing. That's that's how<br>[20:40] ridiculously backwards it is. Like WTF,<br>[20:43] guys.<br>[20:43] >> Yeah, I thought that was why they called<br>[20:45] it mythos, though.<br>[20:46] >> And yeah, that's why it's called Mythos.<br>[20:48] Um, anthropic would argue that it is too<br>[20:51] dangerous for little old me to have<br>[20:54] access to it, right? Depending on, you<br>[20:55] know, uh,<br>[20:56] >> who knows what you'll do, man. Who<br>[20:57] knows? I'll find that zero day and I'll<br>[20:59] hack into Daario's phone. No, I don't<br>[21:01] know, man. It's<br>[21:02] >> I I understand where they're coming<br>[21:03] from, but at the same time, I understand<br>[21:05] why it looks like a huge marketing ploy<br>[21:07] and I'm not sure which way to lean,<br>[21:09] honestly.<br>[21:09] >> Yeah. Okay. No, that's true.<br>[21:11] >> I think it just<br>[21:11] >> that's a whole other angle.<br>[21:13] >> I would think that they'd have so much<br>[21:14] more credibility if they just quit uh<br>[21:16] effectively like giving us shake a baby<br>[21:19] syndrome constantly with their<br>[21:20] marketing. It's just like it's<br>[21:22] constantly going back and forth. Every<br>[21:24] single couple months you're getting hit<br>[21:25] with the new, "Hey, we're all out of<br>[21:26] jobs here shortly. Hey, this thing is<br>[21:28] super dangerous." I mean, you got to<br>[21:30] remember that Daario was at Chad GPT or<br>[21:32] OpenAI. I like to call I like to call<br>[21:34] the company Chad GPT. He was at Chad GPT<br>[21:36] during the two days and the official<br>[21:38] language around Chad GPT2 7 years ago<br>[21:40] was Chad GPT2 is too dangerous to<br>[21:43] release to the public.<br>[21:44] >> So like this is not that's what the two<br>[21:46] sto<br>[21:48] >> that we've been on this like roller<br>[21:49] coaster. I think that's one thing that's<br>[21:51] just largely hurting the credibility is<br>[21:52] you can only cry wolf so many times even<br>[21:54] and then when a real wolf happens like<br>[21:55] if this is a real wolf everyone's like<br>[21:57] yeah okay okay C compiler boy tell me<br>[22:00] all about it<br>[22:01] >> but they don't care they don't care<br>[22:03] right they don't care because they're<br>[22:04] the the baby that they're shaking is<br>[22:06] called an investor that's that's who<br>[22:08] they have more money they have to shake<br>[22:10] the money out of the pockets right they<br>[22:11] don't they don't care what we think<br>[22:13] right because we're not going to write<br>[22:15] them the next hundred billion dollars<br>[22:16] that they need to like keep going and<br>[22:19] they're kind of locked in this, you<br>[22:20] know, it's a bitter bitter winner take<br>[22:23] all kind of war for this like core<br>[22:25] technology part, right? And so they have<br>[22:28] to be the last AI company standing<br>[22:31] because whoever is that company takes<br>[22:33] all the money and the other people kind<br>[22:35] of go to zero, right? Like unless unless<br>[22:37] there's some real differentiation soon<br>[22:39] where it's like oh the AIS bifurcate and<br>[22:41] like Claude is only for code and can't<br>[22:44] do anything else anymore and like chat<br>[22:46] GPT is only for like you know uh the<br>[22:50] humanities or something like good luck<br>[22:52] good luck raising money for that<br>[22:55] 40.<br>[22:56] >> Yeah.<br>[22:57] >> Yeah. Uh so maybe that's not true but<br>[22:59] you know what I mean. If there's some<br>[23:00] kind of really severe bifurcation, then<br>[23:03] maybe they could both survive. But you,<br>[23:04] you know, they're in a winner take all<br>[23:06] battle right now. And so they got to<br>[23:08] keep saying this, every release has to<br>[23:10] be the one that's this is the one that<br>[23:12] it will take over the world. And if it<br>[23:13] doesn't quite, well, you know, it'll be<br>[23:15] next.<br>[23:15] >> You know that uh Claude got sorry, just<br>[23:18] one quick thing. Uh do you know that uh<br>[23:19] Red Bull in 2007, was it 2011? No, 2013<br>[23:23] maybe.<br>[23:23] >> Oh, Red Bull was too dangerous to<br>[23:25] release.<br>[23:25] >> No, Red Bull claimed that it gave you<br>[23:26] wings. remember the day that it gave you<br>[23:28] wings? It was sold, it was sued<br>[23:31] successfully, I believe, for $10 million<br>[23:33] because it in fact did not give you<br>[23:34] wings. It was not superior to coffee.<br>[23:37] >> And so I'm pretty sure in college I got<br>[23:39] a check for like $2.30 from that.<br>[23:41] >> Yes. And so I I am curious.<br>[23:43] >> Ed, you sued Red Bull and won, bro. You<br>[23:45] should make a video about it.<br>[23:46] >> Call me the lawyer. Low level. Okay,<br>[23:48] listen.<br>[23:49] >> Uh<br>[23:51] lowle.<br>[23:53] Legal. Let's go. Low legal. Uh, but I'm<br>[23:55] actually curious if if they keep saying<br>[23:58] that and then it doesn't happen, do they<br>[24:00] open themselves up to a false<br>[24:01] advertisement, class action law? Like,<br>[24:03] can you keep saying this and then not<br>[24:04] get like Red Bull made claims and then<br>[24:07] they got sued? Why not why not other<br>[24:09] people? Why can't other people get sued<br>[24:10] for that?<br>[24:11] >> I think the problem with like with Red<br>[24:13] Bull is like the the case was so<br>[24:15] obvious, right? Like Red Bull does not<br>[24:17] give you wings. End of case. Like, okay,<br>[24:19] fine. Like any judge over the age of<br>[24:21] >> I would have liked to hear the defense<br>[24:23] for that one. Yes, it does.<br>[24:25] >> Your honor. Your honor.<br>[24:26] >> The problem is<br>[24:27] >> they they had like these wings like<br>[24:28] strapped to their back and they go like,<br>[24:30] "I drank your Red Bull this morning and<br>[24:32] here are my wings.<br>[24:33] >> We ship you wings." Yeah.<br>[24:35] >> Um but the problem with anything<br>[24:37] technological when it comes to the<br>[24:38] government or legislation or or you know<br>[24:41] judicial process is that like boomers<br>[24:44] and higher run the world right now when<br>[24:47] it comes to these levels of like jur of<br>[24:49] uh of of making um like legal decisions<br>[24:52] and you couldn't explain to anybody at<br>[24:56] that age unfortunately like right now<br>[24:58] just people that are like running these<br>[24:59] processes what it even means to find a<br>[25:02] bug and then and then show them mythos's<br>[25:04] claims and like and make a sound legal<br>[25:06] argument that would like go well in<br>[25:07] court.<br>[25:08] >> You're right. You're right because<br>[25:09] Camala Harris did actually think<br>[25:10] computing was in the literal clouds and<br>[25:12] so<br>[25:14] >> it's my favorite clip of all time. Yeah,<br>[25:15] there's a clip of her.<br>[25:17] >> Josh,<br>[25:17] >> put the clip in.<br>[25:18] >> So, you're now no longer are you<br>[25:20] necessarily keeping those private files<br>[25:23] in some file cabinet that's locked in<br>[25:25] the basement of the house. It's on your<br>[25:29] laptop and it's then therefore up here<br>[25:32] in this cloud that exists above us,<br>[25:36] right?<br>[25:37] >> She'll have the last laugh though when<br>[25:39] like uh SpaceX is launching uh AI data<br>[25:42] centers into space and come like that's<br>[25:45] what I was talking about. That's what I<br>[25:47] was talking about.<br>[25:48] >> Yeah, it's cloud storage. So, you're<br>[25:49] probably right.<br>[25:50] >> A great clip where she's talking about<br>[25:51] the cloud and she literally points above<br>[25:53] and goes like the cloud it's like above<br>[25:55] us and stuff or something like that.<br>[25:57] It's so good.<br>[25:58] >> She should have known that it wasn't<br>[25:59] there because she would You don't see a<br>[26:01] series of tubes.<br>[26:02] >> There's a series of tubes necessary.<br>[26:04] >> Series of tubes. I learned that<br>[26:05] recently.<br>[26:05] >> It's true.<br>[26:06] >> Um, okay. I got a I got a question for<br>[26:08] you, Ed, like in this in this vein about<br>[26:11] your thoughts on it.<br>[26:13] >> So, right now, I get that there's<br>[26:15] there's basically like the argument<br>[26:17] >> like, okay, I'm a company. I release my<br>[26:19] thing. I run some models as like a<br>[26:22] preventative thing to look for zero<br>[26:23] days. the bad guys run models to try and<br>[26:26] look for zero days. We kind of fight it<br>[26:28] out and it's whatever, right? So, I<br>[26:30] think like everyone's saying like if the<br>[26:32] hackers can use it, I can use it. That's<br>[26:33] fine. But the thing that makes me like a<br>[26:36] little bit more like I don't really know<br>[26:39] is like for the state of like a bunch of<br>[26:41] open source stuff like and I'm an open<br>[26:43] source maintainer and I already can't<br>[26:46] convince a company to send me $100 a<br>[26:49] month to maintain this thing for them.<br>[26:52] There's no chance I'm getting them to<br>[26:55] Well, I'm definitely not going to spend<br>[26:56] 20k of compute. Yeah. Every time I<br>[26:59] release something and decide that now<br>[27:02] it's safe, right?<br>[27:04] >> But and like I can't get any companies<br>[27:05] to pay for that and sponsor it. But like<br>[27:07] if I'm a, you know, if I'm the one<br>[27:11] little pin in the excuse XKCD comic<br>[27:14] that's holding up from Nebraska, the the<br>[27:16] bad guys only need to do mine once. So<br>[27:19] I'm wondering like kind of how you see<br>[27:20] that as like the landscape affecting<br>[27:22] open source things like that cuz it<br>[27:24] seems very asymmetric in that way.<br>[27:26] >> I mean I think it's asymmetric for that<br>[27:30] reason right like the reason why you can<br>[27:32] make the argument that anthropic is<br>[27:34] afraid is because you are the lynch pin<br>[27:37] on the infrastructure of the internet<br>[27:39] and no one has funded you so far. You<br>[27:41] have had zero security audits or zero<br>[27:43] security work done on your stuff. And so<br>[27:45] like if you give access to these models,<br>[27:48] if you really are the lynch pin in the<br>[27:50] internet, you already aren't getting<br>[27:52] money from Netflix, Google, whoever<br>[27:54] that's using your software. And the<br>[27:56] black hats know that you're the lynch<br>[27:58] pin keeping the internet up. They're<br>[27:59] going like they're going to make use of<br>[28:00] that model to to do the exploitation,<br>[28:02] right? Um does that answer your<br>[28:05] question? I mean like I think it's just<br>[28:06] like the amount of power that it gives<br>[28:09] to a single organization given the<br>[28:12] current like<br>[28:13] >> state of open source software in<br>[28:14] particular um is very dangerous and to<br>[28:16] be very clear<br>[28:17] >> these models are also doing are also<br>[28:18] very good at doing close source software<br>[28:20] right like my recommendation to anybody<br>[28:22] interested in this by the way is like go<br>[28:24] take a capture the flag problem from<br>[28:26] like CTF time or crack.1 or whatever and<br>[28:29] uh hook up gedra to gedra mcp and then<br>[28:32] use claw code on gedra mcp it will<br>[28:35] reverse engineer and find a bug in that<br>[28:37] in that problem in a matter of minutes.<br>[28:39] Like it is it like like Opus 46 is a<br>[28:42] better reverse engineer than I am and<br>[28:43] I've been doing this for like coming on<br>[28:45] 14 years. Uh it's honestly terrifying to<br>[28:48] watch it work. So if you're if you're<br>[28:49] even remotely interested in this, go<br>[28:50] give it a shot and you you'll kind of<br>[28:51] see what I'm talking about. It's It's<br>[28:52] scary how fast it moves.<br>[28:55] >> Yeah,<br>[28:55] >> because that so that part that's where<br>[28:56] I'm like, you know, whether it's Mythos<br>[28:58] or not, I feel like right now a bunch of<br>[28:59] stuff you could just maybe it'll cost<br>[29:01] more tokens or it'll take longer or<br>[29:03] something, but like a lot of stuff you<br>[29:04] >> you still could find.<br>[29:06] >> Yeah. And the models also like any model<br>[29:08] does this obviously, but like the the<br>[29:10] current models are really bad about like<br>[29:11] false positives. Like I've done security<br>[29:13] research uh in my free time on like<br>[29:15] Chrome, ESXi, and some other like<br>[29:18] routers that I've like download<br>[29:19] >> regular weekend activity,<br>[29:20] >> classic weekend activity. um and the<br>[29:22] amount of times I've gotten like<br>[29:24] critical finding like buffer overflow in<br>[29:26] like the the RPC handler for this thing<br>[29:28] and it's like okay all right dude like<br>[29:30] write me an ASAN harness that tests that<br>[29:31] and you'll see very quickly oh sorry<br>[29:33] just kidding it's not actually there um<br>[29:35] and so the magic is like if mythos is<br>[29:37] able to make less false positives you<br>[29:39] reduce you increase the the signal to<br>[29:41] noise ratio in this in this process<br>[29:43] which is scary right because it just<br>[29:44] means you need less people to triage the<br>[29:47] uh the reports and ultimately find real<br>[29:49] bugs faster. Uh, so I have another<br>[29:52] question with this mythos thing and and<br>[29:54] maybe I'm curious I'm curious about your<br>[29:56] security expertise. Isn't this whole<br>[29:57] withholding a model kind of like a<br>[29:59] doomed uh proposition to begin with?<br>[30:01] Meaning that if OpenAI has a similarly<br>[30:04] powerful mythos model and they're<br>[30:07] competing for the zero like for the a<br>[30:10] zero game kind of like outcome of who is<br>[30:13] the best model. Doesn't it mean that<br>[30:15] when Open AAI has it, they will just<br>[30:18] release it? Like, and then aren't we<br>[30:20] just forced to go out because whoever<br>[30:22] kind of releases it gets the customers<br>[30:24] and then that by having the customers,<br>[30:25] you win. And so then you just get out<br>[30:26] ahead. Like, doesn't this kind of cause<br>[30:28] like a weird thing where Yeah. we're<br>[30:30] like, "Oh, we can't do this." You know,<br>[30:31] Daario's like saying we can't do it, but<br>[30:33] won't we just kind of fall right into it<br>[30:34] the moment there's two people that have<br>[30:36] it?<br>[30:36] >> Yeah. I mean, that's I'm not like<br>[30:38] [ย __ย ] on capitalism. I'm just saying<br>[30:40] that's more of like a capitalism problem<br>[30:41] than it is like a security problem,<br>[30:43] right? But yeah, your your point is<br>[30:44] basically like if actor A says thing too<br>[30:47] dangerous but could<br>[30:48] >> model open source model shall we say<br>[30:50] >> and actor B has same thing and wants to<br>[30:53] make money with slightly less ethics<br>[30:55] potentially. Yeah, actor B is going to<br>[30:56] release it or Yeah, exactly. Chinese<br>[30:57] model, Russian model, whatever.<br>[30:59] >> Um<br>[30:59] >> well I mean that's literally what I mean<br>[31:01] Daario quit Open AI cuz he's like bro<br>[31:04] they keep they keep making models that<br>[31:06] can kill humanity, right? Okay. So, I'm<br>[31:08] starting a company where we make models<br>[31:10] that could kill humanity,<br>[31:12] >> but they're mine. Uh, also Chinese<br>[31:14] models after open AI or Anthropic<br>[31:18] releases one. So, I think that that<br>[31:20] might be a little bit difficult. They<br>[31:21] might be a little bit behind.<br>[31:23] >> Has anyone seen<br>[31:26] >> Riverside chat? But yeah, I mean, OpenAI<br>[31:28] literally has a model that they claim<br>[31:30] they haven't made any claims, I don't<br>[31:31] think, about like mythos equivalents,<br>[31:32] right? Um, but they're doing effectively<br>[31:34] the same thing where it's a it's KYC<br>[31:36] know your customer. So you have to like<br>[31:37] upload your ID and like talk about what<br>[31:39] work you do and you get access to GPT54<br>[31:42] cyber which I'm assuming is just a model<br>[31:44] that's trained better on bug patterns<br>[31:47] right use after free out of bounds reads<br>[31:49] etc. Um, now if it's actually better<br>[31:51] than mythos who knows right but you know<br>[31:53] it's I think we're all just trending<br>[31:54] regardless of what anthropic wants to<br>[31:55] do. I think we're trending towards every<br>[31:58] person on planet Earth with a couple<br>[31:59] bucks having access to models that are<br>[32:01] very good at bug hunting. Uh, and the<br>[32:03] question is, what does that mean for<br>[32:04] software, right? Does software get more<br>[32:05] secure? Does the world just get more<br>[32:06] scary for a long time and it never<br>[32:08] really like resolves itself? Like, what<br>[32:09] do we do with that information? And<br>[32:10] that's a tough question to answer.<br>[32:12] >> I'm interested to know how expensive<br>[32:13] it's going to be. That's the other<br>[32:14] question.<br>[32:15] >> I mean, this is obviously the question<br>[32:17] kind of that we've been talking about<br>[32:18] for a while on the pod and in life in<br>[32:21] general is what are what are token costs<br>[32:23] going to look like if uh OpenAI and<br>[32:26] Enthropic both get all of the customers<br>[32:28] that they would like to have? Uh,<br>[32:30] because the cost won't be the same. If<br>[32:32] demand 10 or 100 or a thousand X's it<br>[32:35] won't be<br>[32:36] >> so I'm not<br>[32:37] >> the price will not be<br>[32:38] >> I'm not super well read on this. Is it<br>[32:39] true that an inference currently is at a<br>[32:41] loss<br>[32:43] >> like<br>[32:44] >> I've heard I've heard both<br>[32:46] >> both. Okay.<br>[32:46] >> Some people are so confident I I have<br>[32:49] been looking to try and find a<br>[32:50] definitive answer.<br>[32:51] >> I'm the confident one by the way he's<br>[32:53] referencing.<br>[32:54] >> Okay. Oh no no no. I mean well I'm not<br>[32:57] going to reveal my sources.<br>[32:59] I asked Chet BT and I asked Claude.<br>[33:03] >> They both said, "Of course not."<br>[33:05] >> Yeah. Yeah. Right. I've heard I've heard<br>[33:07] though that some some people are saying<br>[33:08] they are running it at a loss or it's a<br>[33:10] bit complicated because like pretty sure<br>[33:12] Anthropics probably running some<br>[33:14] percentage of accounts on the $200 plan<br>[33:16] at a loss,<br>[33:17] >> right? Um but like is is API pricing at<br>[33:21] cost or below? And then how do you<br>[33:23] factor in like training and stuff?<br>[33:25] I my my personal take is that<br>[33:27] >> inference itself just looked at in the<br>[33:29] myopic view of just inference it makes a<br>[33:31] lot of money but you also then once you<br>[33:34] zoom out now you start saying hardware<br>[33:35] and all the incidental stuff around it<br>[33:37] probably still makes money but then when<br>[33:39] you zoom out to say like every time you<br>[33:40] release a model you defunct your<br>[33:42] previous model that is going to have<br>[33:44] that has a very large burden and they<br>[33:46] keep on not making money and needing to<br>[33:48] raise more money so I have a sneaking<br>[33:49] suspicion that part of it is very hard<br>[33:51] to make money in the current state uh<br>[33:54] all All right. Well, OpenAI is like<br>[33:56] publicly like losing money, right? But<br>[33:58] is Anthropic also negative or<br>[34:00] >> they just had another big raise as well,<br>[34:02] so I'm assuming I thought they just<br>[34:04] raised like $6 billion or something.<br>[34:06] Could be wrong<br>[34:06] >> about that chat. Fact check me. I know<br>[34:08] Open AI did 120 billion<br>[34:11] >> uh raise.<br>[34:11] >> So much money.<br>[34:12] >> This is the<br>[34:13] >> Yeah, cash.<br>[34:13] >> This is the one that I actually was<br>[34:15] really curious to see. This is the only<br>[34:16] benchmark that I was super curious to<br>[34:18] see if they're going to uh do well.<br>[34:20] Anthropic Opus 46 Max cost approximately<br>[34:23] $9,000 and got 0.5% score on ARC AGI. So<br>[34:28] this is like the the the super test and<br>[34:30] humans get into the high 90s. Uh AIS get<br>[34:34] like uh Jeypity 4 high cost $5,000 and<br>[34:36] got 2%. Gemini 31 did 4% for $2.2,000.<br>[34:42] >> And so it's like this really difficult<br>[34:45] uh it's a really difficult test for AIS<br>[34:48] to pass. And so mythos did not add<br>[34:50] itself to this one. So this is the<br>[34:52] reason why I largely think it's more<br>[34:54] like hype marketing than it is anything<br>[34:56] because to me this is like a really<br>[34:58] great indicator at least into some sort<br>[35:00] of better model improvement. And so I<br>[35:03] didn't see it.<br>[35:03] >> Sure.<br>[35:04] >> Uh let me can I can I just give a<br>[35:06] counter point to that though?<br>[35:07] >> Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.<br>[35:08] Yeah.<br>[35:10] >> Once again with the huge disclaimer that<br>[35:11] I don't do any AI stuff. So this is just<br>[35:14] off the cuff. But ARC AGI, if I'm not<br>[35:18] mistaken, is a benchmark specifically to<br>[35:22] test how well AIs perform uh on learning<br>[35:26] completely arbitrary new things that<br>[35:29] don't exist anywhere in their training<br>[35:30] data. That's the only thing that it's<br>[35:33] intelligence of this all.<br>[35:35] >> Exactly. And so the only reason I would<br>[35:37] want to point out that I don't think<br>[35:38] that test says very much about this<br>[35:40] particular security thing is security is<br>[35:42] not that true. Like nobody nobody is<br>[35:45] claiming that Claude Mythos came out and<br>[35:47] discovered a whole new set of classes of<br>[35:50] security exploits that no one had ever<br>[35:52] come up with before. What it's saying is<br>[35:54] that it went and found a bunch of the<br>[35:56] exact same kinds of zero days<br>[35:59] >> that someone like Ed would find if they<br>[36:01] went and spent a week on that piece of<br>[36:04] software, right? Like so they're not<br>[36:06] claiming that this thing is somehow more<br>[36:09] intelligent than the predecessor in that<br>[36:11] way. It's claiming that it's got better<br>[36:13] pattern matching<br>[36:14] >> and like stringing things together to<br>[36:17] create exploits, right? That process<br>[36:19] which is well known. And so, so I don't<br>[36:21] think ARC AGI necessarily tells us very<br>[36:23] much about whether it can do those<br>[36:24] things because those things are very<br>[36:27] well-known tasks that security<br>[36:28] researchers know how to do and we kind<br>[36:31] of know the process that you do to do<br>[36:32] them, right? So,<br>[36:34] >> yes, that's okay. I will I will I will<br>[36:36] concede that point most certainly that<br>[36:37] the security at least known and obvious<br>[36:39] security vulnerabilities such as use<br>[36:41] after freeze and and all the fun stuff<br>[36:42] like the stuff that happened in ffmpeg<br>[36:44] with jumping ahead somewhere in a buffer<br>[36:46] based on<br>[36:47] >> yeah the these things are very common<br>[36:49] kinds of bugs they're not like unusual<br>[36:52] the things that they've talked about are<br>[36:53] like very very standard and so that<br>[36:56] seems like a more plausible claim like<br>[36:58] hey we just were able to scale up the<br>[37:01] sort of security checking that a<br>[37:02] security researcher would do it can do<br>[37:04] that thing and and find you know<br>[37:07] potential places for that<br>[37:08] >> a lot more plausible than AGI.<br>[37:10] >> Yeah. The thing too for I feel like for<br>[37:13] the security side of it as oppo like as<br>[37:16] opposed to constructing a product or a<br>[37:18] new product or like building a feature<br>[37:20] where you have to get like in some ways<br>[37:23] all the things right for a security<br>[37:25] thing I only need to find one of the<br>[37:27] things that are wrong.<br>[37:28] >> Yeah. which is like a<br>[37:31] like you can test a bunch of the<br>[37:32] scenarios like you're saying that<br>[37:34] already exist and I only need one thing<br>[37:37] to be wrong in the program for then me<br>[37:39] to be able to take control of it.<br>[37:41] >> Well, and it's combinatorial, right?<br>[37:43] Like a lot of what security research is<br>[37:45] doing is like a it's pattern matching<br>[37:47] for these kinds of bugs and then b going<br>[37:50] like okay if I did this one followed by<br>[37:52] this one would that produce an exploit?<br>[37:54] What if I did in the opposite order?<br>[37:56] What if I did this one and then this one<br>[37:57] and then that one? Okay, what if I did<br>[37:59] this one? Right? And again, these are<br>[38:00] things computers are good at like that.<br>[38:02] It's not you don't have to believe in<br>[38:04] some kind of a weird like supernatural<br>[38:06] like AGI achieved internally Sam Alman<br>[38:08] nonsense to believe that this is<br>[38:10] something a computer could do. It's it's<br>[38:12] much more plausible if anything than<br>[38:14] some of the other claims. So that's why<br>[38:15] I I would like say I'm I'm not that like<br>[38:18] when I saw this I wasn't like that's got<br>[38:20] to be false. I was like okay yeah I<br>[38:22] could believe that. Yeah.<br>[38:22] >> I don't know. Mo most of vul research is<br>[38:25] like you know take a function that gives<br>[38:27] user input like define your threat model<br>[38:30] and then do source to sync analysis on<br>[38:32] some vulnerable function or failure to<br>[38:34] gate a function on like a length check<br>[38:36] and like does user data get there bug<br>[38:39] confirmed and like yeah that's literally<br>[38:41] just pattern matching that we've solved<br>[38:43] a lot of the times previously with like<br>[38:44] satisfiability solvers right like anger<br>[38:46] and like Z3 like take the graph of a<br>[38:49] function turn it into a math problem can<br>[38:50] you solve the math problem cool bug<br>[38:52] confirmed Well, now with AI, it's just<br>[38:54] like that process of doing source to<br>[38:56] sync on like text, it can do incredibly<br>[38:58] fast, right? It's very good. Now,<br>[38:59] obviously, because it's soastic, it<br>[39:00] creates a lot of false positives, but if<br>[39:02] we can figure out a way to reduce the<br>[39:03] false positives or uh automate the the<br>[39:07] validation of of those false positives,<br>[39:09] then yeah, it's it's crazy. And I think<br>[39:11] what they thought about what's that<br>[39:14] >> have they thought about asking mythos?<br>[39:16] >> I know. Come on. Can you just No<br>[39:18] mistakes, please. Um the thing that<br>[39:20] mythos is set apart differently<br>[39:21] according to the anthropic report is its<br>[39:23] ability to chain together primitives.<br>[39:24] Right? So the scary part from like a<br>[39:27] cyber crime perspective is like you have<br>[39:30] uh gadget A that gives you an arbitrary<br>[39:32] read and gadget B that gives you an<br>[39:34] arbitrary right. Okay. Like those two<br>[39:35] separate things are like not super<br>[39:37] important if they're not used together.<br>[39:38] Well, what Mythos is able to do is out<br>[39:41] of a 100 tests, I think it's like 83% of<br>[39:43] the time, find exploit primitives in a<br>[39:47] vulnerable codebase and chain them<br>[39:48] together to get rce, right? That's the<br>[39:50] scary part because then that's true like<br>[39:53] end to end exploit creation for a bad<br>[39:55] actor. And that's I think what scares<br>[39:57] anthropic the most.<br>[39:58] >> Um, now I know there's argument where<br>[40:00] like Firefox wasn't in the sandbox for<br>[40:03] that experiment. So like it doesn't<br>[40:04] actually matter. But I mean just apply<br>[40:06] that process to the sandbox and the same<br>[40:08] thing applies. You know, it's just I<br>[40:09] think they wanted to prove a point that<br>[40:10] it could do that.<br>[40:12] >> Well, and also I mean again like as I've<br>[40:15] said many times, I can't stand AI<br>[40:16] companies, so I'm not trying to defend<br>[40:18] them or anything, but I'm just trying to<br>[40:19] point I'm just trying to point out how<br>[40:20] plausible this stuff is to me from a<br>[40:22] neutral observer standpoint.<br>[40:24] >> Classic case defending AI companies.<br>[40:27] >> Yeah, I know, right?<br>[40:28] >> Um<br>[40:29] >> I know. Uh if you think about it, it's<br>[40:31] like look, security researchers who do<br>[40:34] not number that many were already<br>[40:37] cranking out zero days at a much too<br>[40:39] alarming rate for me, right? Like like<br>[40:42] you know there's a hack every other day,<br>[40:45] right? It's not like CVES are piling up<br>[40:47] like there's no demar and yeah, not all<br>[40:49] of them are actually all that bad or<br>[40:50] whatever, but like it's not like<br>[40:52] security researchers were having trouble<br>[40:54] producing a fair number of of critical<br>[40:56] vulnerabilities even with the limited<br>[40:58] resources that they had. So, it's also<br>[41:01] not weird to think that like if you had<br>[41:05] more automation, you would find a lot<br>[41:07] more of them. It doesn't like there's<br>[41:10] clearly just a lot of bugs, guys. Like<br>[41:12] there's a lot of freaking bugs and it's<br>[41:14] just doesn't seem that unusual that if<br>[41:17] you have more sophisticated pattern<br>[41:19] matching, more sophisticated<br>[41:20] cominatorial checking where the security<br>[41:22] research doesn't have to spend a lot of<br>[41:24] time setting up the tool because it can<br>[41:25] just kind of ingest the code and it<br>[41:27] knows what roughly what it means.<br>[41:29] >> Yeah, I mean they're their rates going<br>[41:30] to increase if nothing else existing<br>[41:32] security teams rates of finding<br>[41:34] exploits. It has to. I mean it just has<br>[41:36] to. Unless this thing is just a complete<br>[41:38] pile of crap,<br>[41:39] >> it's got to. The other thing too we've<br>[41:41] been seeing from each like new<br>[41:43] generation of model is that they're<br>[41:45] getting at least from my experience and<br>[41:47] what I'm what I'm reading from people<br>[41:48] and everything they're getting better at<br>[41:50] calling other tools.<br>[41:51] >> So like they call out to stuff more<br>[41:53] regularly<br>[41:54] >> and they can pay attention for longer.<br>[41:57] recompile this code and see you know<br>[41:59] make this exploit and run it against<br>[42:01] this thing or whatever right like those<br>[42:02] are all things that if you automate them<br>[42:04] a security researcher gets much faster<br>[42:06] at finding because they're not having to<br>[42:08] set up the tooling themselves to like go<br>[42:10] work on this exploit like whatever<br>[42:12] whatever those steps were they don't<br>[42:13] have to do them anymore right<br>[42:15] >> right so then if you're like oh now it<br>[42:17] can run instead of like I have to prompt<br>[42:19] it at every stage for the next thing to<br>[42:21] do is I can give it<br>[42:23] >> 10 rough things say try a bunch of<br>[42:25] combinations of these and and it runs<br>[42:26] for 24 hours.<br>[42:28] >> Yeah.<br>[42:28] >> You're just like a lot. It's literally<br>[42:30] like in in my mind some of it is like<br>[42:32] Yeah. Well, we already know fuzzers<br>[42:33] exist. Like we use them all the time and<br>[42:36] they're good,<br>[42:36] >> right? It's like in some ways almost<br>[42:38] like<br>[42:38] >> Yeah. It's like fuzzer. It's like fuzzer<br>[42:40] squared, right? It's like a thing now<br>[42:41] that can like target the fuzzing at<br>[42:43] things specifically. So that things that<br>[42:46] would be very hard for stocastic testing<br>[42:48] to catch<br>[42:49] >> because when you have stocastic testing<br>[42:50] and you have to chain two things<br>[42:52] together, you're never going to randomly<br>[42:53] pick the two things that would have to<br>[42:55] happen for them to work. Here's a thing<br>[42:56] that can like target that specifically<br>[42:58] and go like, "Oh, I think combine these<br>[43:00] two things. Probably let me fuzz that<br>[43:01] specific path." Oh, yep. I got it right.<br>[43:04] >> That's where it gets crazy is like you<br>[43:05] just have the AI write the fuzzer and<br>[43:07] then like if you can automate that<br>[43:08] process, you win a lot of the time. It's<br>[43:10] it's pretty pretty amazing. Um, I do<br>[43:12] have to go though. I have a meeting in 3<br>[43:13] minutes, so I got to I got to rip. Um<br>[43:15] >> Oh, hopefully you get Mythos access.<br>[43:16] Congrats.<br>[43:17] >> That'd be neat. No, it's not going to<br>[43:18] happen.<br>[43:19] >> Come on, guys. Give him<br>[43:23] >> Have a good one, man.<br>[43:24] >> I like you guys, but it looks like it's<br>[43:26] the end of our show, unfortunately.<br>[43:28] >> Yeah.<br>[43:30] >> True.<br>[43:30] >> All right.<br>[43:30] >> Thank you everybody. I would just like<br>[43:32] to say that uh I would I would just like<br>[43:34] to say that Casey and TJ and obviously<br>[43:37] Teimu Casey that just left commonly<br>[43:39] known as Lowle learning uh you guys you<br>[43:41] know you make the show magic and<br>[43:45] and now I'm just going to go about being<br>[43:47] lonely again. Kind of sad.<br>[43:49] >> Oh, Prime.<br>[43:52] I knew that was coming. I thought I I<br>[43:54] thought I was going to get booed, but I<br>[43:56] I just assumed something was going to<br>[43:58] happen. All right. Um, the real the the<br>[44:00] good news is is that you can enjoy full<br>[44:02] episodes of the standup now on YouTube.<br>[44:05] If you go to the standup pod full, which<br>[44:08] I'm going to try to rename hopefully at<br>[44:10] some point, we're trying to work some<br>[44:11] things out to get it a better name. But<br>[44:12] right now, YouTube, am I right? Um,<br>[44:16] >> if you go to the website, if you go to<br>[44:18] our website, will it have links to<br>[44:20] these?<br>[44:21] >> Yeah, it will. It will. And it'll have<br>[44:23] it spelled out. Uh we'll we'll make it<br>[44:25] more clear once we figure everything out<br>[44:27] over the next week. Maybe by the time<br>[44:29] you're listening to this on YouTube, by<br>[44:32] the time you're listening to this on<br>[44:32] YouTube, uh we're going to upload all of<br>[44:34] the backlog to that channel as well. So<br>[44:37] we should have every episode on YouTube<br>[44:38] in one spot, very easy to see, etc.<br>[44:42] Obviously, you always can, you know, RSS<br>[44:44] download the audio directly. Don't press<br>[44:47] the red button on that site. Of course,<br>[44:49] >> teach, what is that web address that<br>[44:50] people should go to for<br>[44:51] >> the standup pod? Hey,<br>[44:53] >> the stand. Go to the standup pod.com.<br>[44:54] All the links will be there. All the<br>[44:56] episodes will be there. You want<br>[44:57] YouTube, you want Spotify, you want<br>[44:59] downloads, you want RSS, you got it.<br>[45:03] >> The standup pod.com.<br>[45:04] >> Yeah. Yeah. Check this out. I'm just<br>[45:06] going to do something for the audience.<br>[45:07] Look at this. If you go here, you click<br>[45:09] Trash made a black mirror app, you can<br>[45:11] go and you can listen to it right on the<br>[45:13] website. You can have all the<br>[45:16] information right here. You can trashes<br>[45:17] app right there. You can go in here.<br>[45:19] >> We don't even look at this. We don't<br>[45:21] even charge you.<br>[45:22] >> You can play on Spotify. You can<br>[45:24] download and just have personally for<br>[45:26] you to do whatever you do.<br>[45:30] >> That's for you.<br>[45:31] >> Now that we're And then I'll make it<br>[45:32] I'll make it so it links to the YouTube<br>[45:34] there later as well now that we're going<br>[45:36] to have a dedicated YouTube channel for<br>[45:38] that too. So for all of you out there,<br>[45:39] you know,<br>[45:40] >> the AI companies claim that you're going<br>[45:42] to get UBI, but we're actually giving<br>[45:44] you universal basic podcast.<br>[45:48] >> You just get it for free. UBP.<br>[45:50] >> UBP. You know me.<br>[45:51] >> UBP. Yeah,<br>[45:52] >> UBP.<br>[45:53] >> Yeah,<br>[45:54] >> I was going to say, well, I don't know<br>[45:55] what I was going to say. That's fine. We<br>[45:57] should just<br>[45:58] >> We should really just end this episode.<br>[45:59] >> Stick a fork in it, guys. It's done.<br>[46:01] >> All right. Thanks.<br>[46:02] >> Good seeing everybody.<br>[46:03] >> Thanks, YouTube. Thanks again, uh,<br>[46:06] whatever your name is. Tee, you're<br>[46:08] pretty neat. Boot up the day.<br>[46:12] V coating errors on my screen.<br>[46:16] Terminal coffee<br>[46:19] and<br>[46:21] living the dream. <!-- deep-read:sections end --> ๐Ÿ“„ **Full text:** ![[Full Document Contents/Articles/The Mythos Situation TheStandup.md|The Mythos Situation | TheStandup by YouTube]] ## Highlights - quick and go to the graph? It's on the homepage there. >> I'm gone. >> While he's doing that, the the ability of for AI models to both in closed source and open- source software find vulnerabilities by literally just giving it access to the code and saying, "Hey, find me bugs in this code. Go." is becoming better and better and better to the point where like Mythos I'm very close to some people that are like actively using Mythos at work and it is causing like like issues based on how good that [ย __ย ] is, right? Yeah. So so Cyberjim basically is is a is a ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51xa1c2hsh4we69rfgr09)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted - of the bugs that are known to exist in these code bases. It can find 83% of them. Again, we we don't know the cost um data in those. We don't know if like the models are being like uh backfed the information, so they're like training themselves on previous Cyber Gym runs. We don't know any of that. Um, but it it there is this really weird issue happening where like any Joe Schmo with not a ton of security research work or not a ton of security knowledge can with a couple hundred bucks like worst case find bugs in software. And I think that is like an existential security threat ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51xat4xdf9k4br5dykqkk)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted - to software right now as we know it. So I'm kind of curious on your guys' take on that. What do you guys think about the the mythos situation? Because I know I know how I feel. I'm not sure if I actually asked Prime what he thinks about that the mythos thing. Oh, I have ideas and I have thoughts about it. Oh, yeah. Uh oh. So, I guess the first thing is that it there's two there's kind of like three there's three problems here. First problem is is Mythos really as good as they say and obviously I have no internal information. I've just seen some graphs. Uh dirty data is like a ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51xbjkfvrk7dzwt4jrd5h)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted - able to pattern match bugs uh reasonably well and at a very high rate. meaning as long as you're willing to pay for the compute time, we can scan lots of software uh for a lot longer than we were currently having humans do it, right? I think that's a pretty reasonable thing to expect. Whether Cloud Mythos has done it or not shouldn't really be the question because somebody can do this eventually if we keep spending this much money. It should get there. Uh among the things that AI could eventually do, that one doesn't ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51xdbhn68x5ez2rwqb5dq)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted - vulnerability research is cooked makes on sock puppet.org that I referenced in a video and I think Theo did too. Um, we're one paragraph that he calls out basically >> the O, sorry, that the O referenced in a video. Um, >> okay. I don't know what that is. >> Spell it. Casey, spell it out in your head and it'll make sense. >> The O Christ. >> Um, >> so software security a lot of the times can be marked up to the fact that a lot of software just has not had elite ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51xexz1d3h45ee31fyga5)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted - everyone's a white hat Now, um, so we do I think in general this is solving a a good, you know, this is this is a way AI could solve a problem usefully. If it actually can just spit out lists of pretty well-curated potential bug places that we can go look, that's very helpful, right? And so the problem is like the only reason they were able to make that is lots and lots of extremely talented security researchers who are getting literally zero dollars from Anthropic for this. And that is not ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51xkxyvkede6spsj6httg)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted - they haven't made any claims, I don't think, about like mythos equivalents, right? Um, but they're doing effectively the same thing where it's a it's KYC know your customer. So you have to like upload your ID and like talk about what work you do and you get access to GPT54 cyber which I'm assuming is just a model that's trained better on bug patterns right use after free out of bounds reads etc. Um, now if it's actually better than mythos who knows right but you know it's I think we're all just trending regardless of what anthropic wants to do. I think we're trending towards every person on planet Earth with a couple bucks having access to models that are ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51xzcj3evjvkhz4agsx3c)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted - creates a lot of false positives, but if we can figure out a way to reduce the false positives or uh automate the the validation of of those false positives, then yeah, it's it's crazy. And I think what they thought about what's that >> have they thought about asking mythos? >> I know. Come on. Can you just No mistakes, please. Um the thing that mythos is set apart differently according to the anthropic report is its ability to chain together primitives. Right? So the scary part from like a cyber crime perspective is like you have uh gadget A that gives you an arbitrary ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51y89q75m0r5bgnq9hv5b)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted - like look, security researchers who do not number that many were already cranking out zero days at a much too alarming rate for me, right? Like like you know there's a hack every other day, right? It's not like CVES are piling up like there's no demar and yeah, not all of them are actually all that bad or whatever, but like it's not like security researchers were having trouble producing a fair number of of critical vulnerabilities even with the limited resources that they had. So, it's also ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01kpm51ymfnyeh7am1bnrsas8n)) - Tags: ๐Ÿ‘ป ai highlighted