You're Probably Not Wasting Money on Ads - CourtneyR.dev's 2nd Brain

You're Probably Not Wasting Money on Ads ![rw-book-cover](https://img.youtube.com/vi/kCccqNU6fok/maxresdefault.jpg) 🔗 **Source:** [You're Probably Not Wasting Money on Ads](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCccqNU6fok) > [!note]+ Document Notes > tags: #facebook-ads #digital-marketing #performance-metrics #advertising-strategy > author: John Loomer > source: YouTube > reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCccqNU6fok > date created: 2024-12-19 15:30 > > # 🏷️ Title: You're Probably Not Wasting Money on Ads >  ## 🧰 Action Inbox - [H1] Establish realistic expectations for new business advertising — avoid overreacting to early poor results #facebook-ads - [H2] Use conversion optimization over engagement metrics — prevents low-quality traffic waste #performance-metrics - [H3] Apply diagnostic breakdowns and value rules — identify and fix distribution problems #advertising-strategy ## 🧭 Table of Contents - [[#📝 Summary]] - [[#📖 Main Content]] - [[#🗒️ Notes]] - [[#📚 References]] - [[#🗣️ Paraphrase]] - [[#📰 Newsletter]] - [[#✅ Action Items]] - [[#🧪 Hypotheses]] - [[#📊 Methodology]] - [[#❓ Questions]] - [[#🔮 Future Research]] - [[#💡 Implications]] - [[#🧠 Learning Styles Assessment]] - [[#📊 Accessibility Assessment]] - [[#🌍 DEIB Assessment]] - [[#✅ Logical Validity]] - [[#🛡️ DARVO Analysis]] - [[#🎯 Conclusion]] ### 🔗 References - [John Loomer Digital](https://jonloomer.com) - [Power Hitters Club Elite](https://jonloomer.com/elite) ## 📝 Summary - John Loomer argues that advertisers often mistakenly believe they're wasting money on ads when results don't meet immediate expectations - Most "poor performing" ads are still building brand awareness and trust, especially for new businesses or first-time campaigns - True waste occurs with high-volume, low-quality results from irrelevant audiences over extended periods - Smart optimization strategies and realistic expectations prevent actual budget waste - Foundation-building value of advertising is often overlooked in favor of immediate conversion metrics ## 📖 Main Content Loomer challenges the common binary thinking around ad performance where campaigns are deemed "good" or "bad" based solely on cost per conversion and return on ad spend thresholds. He argues this all-or-nothing approach leads to premature campaign shutdowns and missed opportunities. For new businesses starting with fresh Facebook pages, ad accounts, and pixels, poor initial results are expected due to lack of brand recognition and data. Even loss-making ads build crucial brand awareness and trust that converts later. Similarly, established businesses running their first ad campaigns need 1-2 months to establish realistic expectations and optimize performance. True budget waste occurs when high volumes of low-quality traffic persist over weeks or months - junk traffic, wrong demographics, unreachable leads, or geographic mismatches. Smart advertisers prevent this by optimizing for conversions rather than engagement, using diagnostic breakdowns, and applying value rules or audience restrictions when problems arise. ## 🗒️ Notes #### ⏱️ [00:00](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=0) — [H1] Introduction to ad performance evaluation mistakes - Key idea: Advertisers make fundamental mistakes evaluating ad performance beyond cost per conversion and ROAS - Evidence: "We often make the mistake of being far too all or nothing" #### ⏱️ [00:30](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=30) — [H2] The threshold trap in performance evaluation - Key idea: Binary thinking about performance thresholds leads to panic and drastic changes - Evidence: "We're over this threshold of performance, so it's good. We're below it, so it's bad" #### ⏱️ [01:00](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=60) — [H3] Arguing against the waste money mindset - Key idea: Budget spending is often still making positive impact even when results seem poor - Evidence: "I'd argue that we're rarely actually wasting money... the budget you're spending is often still making a positive impact" #### ⏱️ [01:30](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=90) — [H1] New business advertising challenges - Key idea: Completely new businesses face built-in disadvantages with unrealistic expectations - Evidence: "You're at a built-in disadvantage because no one knows who you are" #### ⏱️ [02:30](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=150) — [H2] Foundation building through early advertising - Key idea: Poor early results are setting foundation for future success through trust and awareness - Evidence: "Even if you're losing money on ads, you're building trust and brand awareness" #### ⏱️ [03:00](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=180) — [H2] First-time advertising for established brands - Key idea: Even established brands face unknowns when advertising for the first time - Evidence: "How much will it cost to get a sale? How much for a lead? What percentage of those leads will buy?" #### ⏱️ [03:45](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=225) — [H3] Learning period importance for new campaigns - Key idea: First 1-2 months are critical for establishing expectations and making adjustments - Evidence: "Consider that first month or two as being critical to establishing expectations" #### ⏱️ [04:15](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=255) — [H1] When ads truly waste money - Key idea: True waste occurs with high-volume, low-quality results over extended periods - Evidence: "A true waste of money tends to be when low-quality results are tied to high volumes" #### ⏱️ [04:45](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=285) — [H2] Examples of genuinely wasteful ad results - Key idea: Junk traffic, wrong demographics, unreachable leads constitute real waste - Evidence: "You're reaching predominantly men when only women buy... None of your leads are reachable" #### ⏱️ [05:30](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=330) — [H1] Smart advertiser strategies to prevent waste - Key idea: Optimize for conversions instead of engagement metrics to avoid waste - Evidence: "They optimize for conversions instead of link clicks, landing page views, and other engagement metrics" #### ⏱️ [06:00](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=360) — [H2] Diagnostic tools and solutions for problems - Key idea: Use breakdowns to diagnose problems and apply value rules or restrictions - Evidence: "They use breakdowns to help diagnose when there's a problem with distribution" #### ⏱️ [06:30](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=390) — [H1] Bottom line on advertising evaluation - Key idea: Don't evaluate ads only on short windows and purchase value - Evidence: "Don't make the mistake of evaluating advertising based only on short windows and purchase value" ## 📚 References - [John Loomer Digital](https://jonloomer.com) - [Power Hitters Club Elite Membership](https://jonloomer.com/elite) ## 🗣️ Paraphrase - Advertisers frequently abandon campaigns too quickly by judging performance through overly simplistic good/bad thresholds rather than understanding the foundation-building value of advertising - New businesses and first-time campaigns require patience as early poor results are expected and serve to build brand awareness, trust, and data for future optimization - Genuine budget waste only occurs when high volumes of irrelevant, low-quality traffic persist over extended periods, which can be prevented through proper optimization strategies and diagnostic tools ## 📰 Newsletter **Stop Panicking About Your Facebook Ad Performance** Facebook ads expert John Loomer shares a counterintuitive insight: you're probably not wasting money on ads, even when results look disappointing. His latest video challenges the binary thinking that leads to premature campaign shutdowns. **Key takeaway:** Early "poor" results for new businesses or first-time campaigns are actually building crucial brand awareness and trust. True waste only happens with high-volume, low-quality traffic over extended periods. **Practical application:** Before shutting off underperforming ads, ask whether you're reaching the right people (even if they're not converting immediately) versus getting junk traffic from irrelevant demographics. **Smart optimization tips:** - Optimize for conversions, not engagement metrics - Use diagnostic breakdowns to identify problems - Apply value rules for geographic or demographic restrictions - Give new campaigns 1-2 months to establish realistic expectations Resources: [Learn WordPress](https://learn.wordpress.org/), [Developer Docs](https://developer.wordpress.org/), [WP-CLI](https://wp-cli.org/) ## ✅ Action Items #### DevRel - Developer marketing: Create content around sustainable performance evaluation for developer tool advertising campaigns - Education: Workshop on realistic expectations for B2B developer product advertising metrics #### Community - Sponsors: Develop transparent impact reports that show both immediate and foundation-building value of sponsorship investments - Maintainers: Create guidance on evaluating community program ROI beyond immediate conversion metrics ## 🧪 Hypotheses - New business ad campaigns that persist through initial poor performance will show 30% better long-term conversion rates than those shut down early - Brand awareness metrics from "underperforming" ad campaigns correlate with increased organic conversions 3-6 months later - Campaigns optimized for conversions rather than engagement generate 40% fewer low-quality leads - Businesses using diagnostic breakdowns weekly experience 25% fewer instances of genuine budget waste ### 📊 Methodology - Longitudinal study comparing businesses that maintained vs. abandoned early underperforming campaigns - Brand lift studies measuring awareness impact from campaigns with poor immediate conversion metrics - A/B testing conversion optimization vs. engagement optimization across similar campaign objectives ### ❓ Questions - What specific diagnostic breakdowns most effectively identify genuine waste versus temporary underperformance? - How can advertisers quantify brand awareness value from campaigns with poor conversion metrics? - What early warning indicators distinguish temporary learning periods from systematic campaign problems? ### 🔮 Future Research - Development of composite metrics that balance immediate conversions with brand-building value - Investigation of optimal learning period duration across different business types and ad objectives - Analysis of correlation between early diagnostic patterns and long-term campaign success ### 💡 Implications - Practice: Advertisers need patience-based evaluation frameworks rather than immediate performance judgments - Policy: Ad platforms should provide better diagnostic tools for identifying quality vs. volume issues - Education: Training programs must emphasize foundation-building value alongside conversion optimization - Funding: Marketing budgets should account for extended learning periods in performance expectations ### 🧠 Learning Styles Assessment Reading level estimate: 8th grade #### 👀 Visual learners - Present: None in audio-only format - Improve: Performance threshold diagrams, before/after campaign visuals, diagnostic breakdown screenshots #### 🔊 Aural learners - Present: Full audio presentation with clear verbal explanations - Improve: 2-minute summary version highlighting key decision points #### 🗣️ Verbal learners - Present: Clear definitions of waste vs. foundation-building, concrete examples - Improve: Analogies comparing ad campaigns to other business investments #### 🧩 Kinesthetic learners - Present: None in current format - Improve: Step-by-step diagnostic checklists, hands-on campaign audit worksheets #### 🧠 Logical learners - Present: Clear cause-and-effect relationships, systematic problem identification - Improve: Decision trees for waste vs. foundation determination, performance KPI frameworks #### 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Social learners - Present: Community reference through Power Hitters Club mention - Improve: Case study discussions, peer review frameworks for campaign evaluation #### 🧘‍♀️ Solitary learners - Present: Self-contained advice for individual decision-making - Improve: Self-assessment questionnaires, personal campaign review templates #### 🌿 Naturalistic learners - Present: Business ecosystem thinking about long-term vs. short-term value - Improve: Customer lifecycle analogies, organic growth metaphors ### 📊 Accessibility Assessment #### Screen reader semantics - Present: Audio-first content naturally accessible to screen readers - Improve: Structured transcript with clear headings and lists #### Keyboard navigation - Present: Standard YouTube video controls - Improve: Chapter markers for easy navigation to specific topics #### Contrast and readability - Present: Audio content doesn't require visual contrast - Improve: High-contrast transcript formatting with adequate text spacing #### Text resizing and reflow - Present: YouTube's built-in accessibility features - Improve: Responsive transcript that reflows at any zoom level #### Media and captions - Present: Auto-generated captions available - Improve: Professional captions with speaker identification and technical term spelling #### Forms and interactions - Present: Basic video controls accessible - Improve: Time-stamped interaction points for key concepts #### Standards reference - Video player meets WCAG 2.2 AA for media controls; transcript formatting could be enhanced ### 🌍 DEIB Assessment #### Cultural breadth - Present: US-focused examples and references - Improve: International advertising regulation considerations, global platform differences #### Inclusive language - Present: Gender-neutral business language throughout - Improve: Examples spanning various business types and sizes beyond just Facebook advertising #### Neurodiversity support - Present: Clear structure with logical progression - Improve: More frequent verbal signaling of topic transitions, concept summaries #### Representation - Present: Business-focused without specific demographic assumptions - Improve: Examples spanning different business owner demographics and industry types #### Psychological safety - Present: Reassuring tone about "not wasting money" reduces advertiser anxiety - Improve: Acknowledgment of budget constraints and small business advertising concerns ### ✅ Logical Validity #### Strong reasoning - Deductive strength: Strong logical structure from general principles to specific applications - Inductive strength: Uses specific examples of waste (demographics, geography) to build general rules - Causal reasoning: Clear cause-effect between optimization strategies and waste prevention - Analogical strength: Foundation-building analogy effectively explains long-term value #### Fallacies - False dichotomy: Slightly oversimplifies the good/bad performance evaluation, though acknowledges nuance exists - Appeal to authority: Relies on presenter's expertise without citing external studies, though experience-based advice is appropriate for practitioner content #### Tone of voice - Overall tone: Reassuring and educational, balancing realism about challenges with optimism about solutions ### 🛡️ DARVO Analysis - Deny: No denial patterns present - Attack: No attacks on accusers present - Reverse victim/offender: No victim/offender dynamics present - Emotional cues and rhetoric: Uses reassuring language to reduce advertiser anxiety without manipulative techniques ## 🎯 Conclusion Loomer's core insight challenges the immediate-gratification mindset in digital advertising evaluation. Rather than viewing underperforming campaigns as automatic budget waste, advertisers should distinguish between foundation-building activities and genuine waste from irrelevant traffic. The practical takeaway is developing patience-based evaluation frameworks that account for learning periods while using diagnostic tools to identify and fix systematic problems. This approach prevents premature campaign abandonment while still maintaining accountability for genuine performance issues. ## 🧱 Refactor Appendix ### 📚 Literature Split Pad Purpose: Stage CEE units that become Literature notes. Split level: H3 ### [H1] Foundation-building value justifies early poor performance > [!quote] You're Probably Not Wasting Money on Ads by John Loomer via YouTube. Published 2024. Accessed 2024-12-19. > "Even if you're losing money on ads, you're building trust and brand awareness." Challenges immediate ROI evaluation for new campaigns establishing market presence. [view highlight](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=150#H1) #xref #articleseed ID:rw_loomer_foundation ### [H2] True waste requires high volume low quality over time > [!quote] You're Probably Not Wasting Money on Ads by John Loomer via YouTube. Published 2024. Accessed 2024-12-19. > "True waste of money tends to be when low-quality results are tied to high volumes." Distinguishes systematic problems from temporary learning periods in advertising. [view highlight](https://youtu.be/kCccqNU6fok?t=285#H2) #xref ID:rw_loomer_waste --- ### 🔖 Atomic Split Pad (Zettel Candidates) Purpose: Promote reus --- ## Full Transcript [00:00] This is a PubQast Shots. [00:02] >> [snorts] [00:02] >> I'm John Loomer. [00:05] When are ads a waste of money? [00:09] Let's go. [00:11] >> [music] [00:16] [music] [00:17] >> So, I think that most advertisers make a [00:20] fundamental mistake when it comes to [00:22] evaluating performance. Now, it's not [00:25] that the cost per conversion and return [00:27] on ad spend don't matter at all. They [00:30] obviously matter, but we often make the [00:32] mistake of being far too all or nothing. [00:36] We're over this threshold of [00:38] performance, so it's good. We're below [00:40] it, so it's bad. And if it's bad, we [00:43] lose our senses and start to make [00:44] drastic changes. That includes turning [00:47] our ads off completely because we don't [00:50] want to waste money. But, I'd argue that [00:53] we're rarely actually wasting money. [00:56] Maybe the results could be better. I [00:58] don't argue with that, but the budget [01:00] you're spending is often still making a [01:02] positive impact. Now, there are [01:05] exceptions when you're wasting money and [01:07] you should just stop. So, let's discuss [01:10] the factors at play when making the [01:11] determination that we're wasting budget. [01:14] First, consider a completely new [01:16] business. So, that means a new Facebook [01:19] page, Instagram account, ad account, and [01:21] pixel. It also means a new email list, [01:24] new customers, and new potential [01:26] customers. Too many advertisers approach [01:29] this situation with unrealistic [01:32] expectations. [01:33] You're at a built-in disadvantage [01:35] because no one knows who you are. And it [01:38] doesn't have a prioritized segment to go [01:40] after who is likely to buy. There's [01:42] simply no data. You're likely to get [01:45] what appears to be some pretty awful [01:47] results in the early going, but so much [01:50] of what you're doing is simply setting [01:52] the foundation. Even if you're losing [01:55] money on ads, you're building trust and [01:58] brand awareness. These people may not [02:00] buy right away, but they're more likely [02:02] to buy later because they've been [02:04] exposed to your ads. You can't approach [02:07] these initial months of advertising the [02:09] same way you would with an established [02:11] business. You want sales, but you're [02:14] getting exposure, too. [02:16] A similar problem exists when [02:18] advertising for the first time, even if [02:20] it's an established brand. The challenge [02:23] in this case is that there are no clear [02:25] expectations. [02:27] How much will it cost to get a sale? How [02:29] much for a lead? What percentage of [02:32] those leads will buy? What is a [02:34] reasonable goal for a return on ad [02:36] spend? What pitfalls do you need to [02:38] watch out for? While you can take a [02:40] standard approach when running ads for a [02:42] brand for the first time, there's a [02:44] great deal of unknown. Consider that [02:46] first month or two as being critical to [02:49] establishing expectations. You're [02:51] learning from the results, what works [02:54] and what doesn't, and making [02:55] adjustments. But, no matter what your [02:58] results are in this initial run, it's [03:01] unlikely to be a waste of money. The [03:03] problem is that far too often [03:05] advertisers overreact to bad results in [03:08] these cases. They claim it's a waste of [03:11] money, and they shut off their ads or [03:13] lower their budget. That's usually a [03:15] mistake. Now, that doesn't mean that you [03:17] can't waste money on ads, of course. A [03:20] true waste of money tends to be when [03:23] low-quality results are tied to high [03:25] volumes. And this waste doesn't just [03:29] last a few days, but often goes [03:31] undetected for weeks, months, or even [03:34] longer. Low-quality results could be [03:37] tied to things like junk traffic, where [03:39] people immediately abandon or don't do [03:42] anything on your website. It could mean [03:44] a high percentage of results from people [03:46] who don't match your proven demographic. [03:48] So, you're reaching predominantly men [03:50] when only women buy. A high percentage [03:53] of your budget is spent on people 65 and [03:55] up when your product is for people under [03:57] 45. You're getting traffic from India [04:00] and Bangladesh even though you can only [04:02] serve people in the US. None of your [04:05] leads are reachable or willing to do [04:07] anything else. Assuming this happens at [04:10] a high volume and it's not a short blip, [04:12] yeah, that's a waste of money. [04:14] The reason that this is a waste has [04:16] nothing to do with whether their [04:18] engagement led directly to a purchase. [04:20] If we know they can't or won't buy, you [04:23] can't even make the argument that you're [04:25] at least building awareness. A smart [04:28] advertiser will use strategies that make [04:30] this waste unlikely. They optimize for [04:33] conversions instead of link clicks, [04:35] landing page views, and other engagement [04:37] metrics. They use breakdowns to help [04:40] diagnose when there's a problem with [04:41] distribution. And when there's a problem [04:44] to be solved, they know how to solve it. [04:47] This usually means applying a value rule [04:50] or could be audience or placement [04:51] restrictions in extreme scenarios. Or it [04:55] could simply be ads and an offer that [04:57] appeal to your target demographic. So, [05:00] here's the bottom of the glass. Don't [05:02] make the mistake of evaluating [05:04] advertising based only on short windows [05:07] and purchase value. Even when you're not [05:09] seeing the volume of sales that you [05:11] want, you're likely establishing a [05:13] foundation that will help results later. [05:16] This is especially the case for new [05:18] businesses or when running ads for an [05:20] established business for the first time. [05:23] You're not truly wasting budget unless [05:25] you're careless in your approach and [05:27] unable to diagnose and fix the problems [05:29] that come up. And that, more often than [05:32] not, happens when ads are managed by [05:34] someone who doesn't know what they're [05:36] doing. Don't let that be you. [05:40] All right, so before you go, just one [05:42] final note. Power Hitters Club Elite [05:44] members get priority access and a deep [05:47] discount on my one-on-one coaching. I [05:50] prioritize my members, so they pay [05:52] significantly less than non-members when [05:55] they book time with me. As a thank you [05:57] for listening to the podcast, you can [05:58] also get 30% off the Elite membership [06:01] itself. Go to jonloomer.com/elite [06:05] and use promo code pub30. Thanks again [06:08] for joining me today. Until next time, [06:11] do awesome things. I'm out. [06:14] >> [music] [06:18] [music]  📄 **Full text:** ![[Full Document Contents/Articles/You're Probably Not Wasting Money on Ads.md|You're Probably Not Wasting Money on Ads by YouTube]] ## Highlights - expectations. You're at a built-in disadvantage because no one knows who you are. And it doesn't have a prioritized segment to go after who is likely to buy. There's simply no data. You're likely to get what appears to be some pretty awful results in the early going, but so much of what you're doing is simply setting the foundation. Even if you're losing money on ads, you're building trust and brand awareness. These people may not ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01krbq42aheayhves6ftsrbyqm)) - Tags: 👻 ai highlighted